The news that Japan is dramatically increasing its defence spending, with the British Defence Secretary applauding Tokyo’s ‘critical’ role, is more than a mere footnote in the daily news cycle. It is a seismic shift in the global order, one that should have us all sit up and take notice. For those of us with a sense of history, the parallels to the pre-war era are impossible to ignore. But before you accuse me of alarmism, let us consider the facts.
Japan, a nation that has spent decades as a pacifist outlier, is now embracing a more robust military posture. This is not a knee-jerk reaction but a calculated response to a neighbourhood that has become increasingly dangerous: a bellicose North Korea, a revisionist Russia and a China that is carving up the South China Sea like a territorial shark. The UK, itself in the midst of a defence review that has seen it look eastwards after decades of Atlanticism, has found a kindred spirit in Tokyo.
The Defence Secretary’s praise for Japan is not mere diplomatic flattery. It is an acknowledgement that our interests align. Both nations are post-industrial, maritime powers wedded to the rules-based international order. Both face the same challenges from authoritarian states that view sovereignty as a convenience rather than a principle. The partnership is logical, even vital. And yet, we must be careful.
For the left, this is a moment to wring hands about the revival of militarism. They will point to Japan’s wartime atrocities and ask if we are enabling a new imperial dawn. This is lazy thinking. Japan has been a beacon of stability and democracy in Asia for seventy years. Its constitution, drafted by American soldiers, forbids it from waging war. The current build-up is defensive, not offensive. But the left rarely lets facts get in the way of a good narrative.
For the right, the surge is a cause for celebration. They see a reliable ally finally pulling its weight, a counterweight to China, and a boost to the defence industrial base. They will talk of burden-sharing and the enduring value of the alliance. They are not wrong, but they are also missing the forest for the trees.
The real issue is not whether Japan builds more ships or buys more F-35s. The real issue is that the post-Cold War peace dividend has been spent. The world is fragmenting, and nations are rearming. The liberal international order that Western elites championed is not dying; it is being tested. And like any test, it requires those taking it to be prepared. Japan is preparing. The UK is preparing. But are we prepared for the consequences?
Let’s not pretend this is a panacea. A militarily stronger Japan may deter some but will alarm others. China will see it as a provocation. South Korea, which itself has historical grievances with Tokyo, will be nervous. The region, already a tinderbox, is getting more flammable. The UK, by hitching its star to Tokyo, is placing a bet on a particular outcome. That is the nature of foreign policy. But bets can be lost.
What we are witnessing is the return of great power politics in its most raw form. The polite fiction of a post-national world, where trade binds all and armies are redundant, has been exposed as a fantasy. Nations are rediscovering that hard power matters. Soft power, while valuable, cannot protect a country’s borders or guarantee its interests. Japan, like the UK, has come to this realisation. It is a sobering moment.
So, I will not join the applause line. Nor will I join the hysterical denunciations. I will simply note that history is cyclical. The fall of Rome was not a single event but a process; the same can be said of the decline of any order. Japan’s defence surge is a sign that the current order is shifting. Whether that shift leads to a stable new equilibrium or a descent into chaos depends on the wisdom of those making the decisions. Given the intellectual calibre of our current politicians, I am not optimistic.
