In a stark warning from a senior UK defence official, Japan’s unprecedented military buildup has been described as ‘vital’ for preventing open conflict in the Indo-Pacific, as the region undergoes a tectonic shift in global power dynamics. The statement, made during a joint press conference in Tokyo, underscores the deepening alliance between London and Tokyo amid rising tensions with China and North Korea.
Japan, constrained by its post-war pacifist constitution, has historically limited its military to self-defence. But recent years have seen a dramatic reversal. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government has committed to doubling defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, a move that would make Japan one of the world’s top military spenders. The UK’s Minister for the Armed Forces, James Heappey, called the surge ‘essential for regional stability’ and praised Japan’s ‘bold leadership in an era of uncertainty’.
This isn’t just about hardware. Japan is also revising its national security strategy, acquiring long-range cruise missiles, and exploring the possibility of ‘counterstrike capabilities’ – a term that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. The UK sees Japan as a natural partner in a web of alliances designed to counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and its military posturing near Taiwan.
The ‘global power shift’ he referred to is multifaceted. The US, while still the dominant force in the region, is increasingly asking allies to shoulder more of the burden. Meanwhile, China’s military modernisation and Russia’s war in Ukraine have shattered old assumptions about the post-Cold War order. For the UK, Brexit has refocused attention on the Indo-Pacific as a theatre for trade and security cooperation, culminating in the AUKUS pact with Australia and the US, and a mutual access agreement with Japan signed in 2023.
But critics warn that an arms race could trigger the very conflict it aims to prevent. Beijing has condemned Japan’s ‘dangerous militarisation’, accusing it of reviving its imperial past. Domestic opposition in Japan also remains significant, with many citizens wary of constitutional revision and the potential for entanglement in US-led conflicts.
For the UK, the calculus is clear: Japan’s defence surge is not just about Tokyo. It is a linchpin in a broader strategy to deter war through credible deterrence. As Heappey put it, ‘The best way to avoid a fight is to look like you can win one.’ Whether this logic holds in an era of nuclear-armed neighbours and economic interdependence remains to be seen.
What is undeniable is that the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific is being rewritten at breakneck speed. Japan, once the region’s economic powerhouse but a military dwarf, is now embracing a role that could redefine the balance of power for decades. The UK, once a distant observer, is now a key architect of this new order. The warning from London is clear: the world is watching, and the stakes have never been higher.
