Four protesters are dead and over a dozen injured after police opened fire in Nairobi’s Mathare slum yesterday. The casualties come as demonstrations against spiralling fuel prices and the new Finance Act 2023 entered their fourth day. Witnesses told this reporter that officers fired live rounds into a crowd blocking a major road linking the city to the port of Mombasa. One parent, Mary Atieno, described watching her 19 year old son take a bullet to the chest. “He was just standing there,” she said. “They didn't warn us. They just shot.”
The protests, fuelled by a 16% increase in petrol prices since June, have now spread to Kisumu and Mombasa. In Mombasa, dockworkers refused to unload a cargo vessel carrying refined crude. The port handles over 90% of Kenya's imports. Any prolonged disruption threatens supply chains stretching from Uganda to South Sudan. A source inside a British freight firm, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisal, confirmed that three of the companies’ trucks were torched near Nakuru. “Our drivers are refusing to leave the depot,” they said. “We’ve lost around £2 million in goods so far.”
British investors have reason to be nervous. The UK is Kenya's third largest trade partner, with bilateral trade worth £1.8 billion in 2022. Major firms like Unilever and Vodafone have extensive operations here. A leaked memo from the British High Commission, seen by this reporter, urges “all UK businesses to review security protocols”. It also notes that “the current fiscal trajectory may undermine investor confidence.” Sources inside the High Commission confirm they have raised concerns directly with President William Ruto’s treasury team.
The fuel price hike is the direct result of the government’s decision to scrap fuel subsidies under pressure from the International Monetary Fund. In exchange for a $2.34 billion loan, Kenya agreed to remove price controls. The outcome was predictable. Petrol now retails at 217 shillings per litre, up from 159 in June 2022. For the millions of Nairobi residents who rely on motorbike taxis, the increase is catastrophic. Boda boda driver Joseph Omondi told me he now spends half his daily earnings on fuel. “I have three children. I don’t know how we will eat this month.”
But the bodies in Mathare are not collateral damage to economists. They are evidence of a government willing to protect its deals with lenders over the lives of its citizens. The British investors urging stable trade corridors are not wrong to be worried. Disruption is bad for business. But what about the disruption to families burying their dead? The IMF’s next review of Kenya’s loan programme is due in October. Until then, expect more tear gas, more roadblocks, and more bodies.
This reporter has seen the documents. The death toll will rise. The suits will continue to count their losses. And nobody, not even the High Commissioner, will be held accountable.
