In a tale as old as the samovar, the Kremlin has once again cranked up the pressure on its wayward neighbour Armenia. This time, the charge is that Yerevan is ‘cosying up to the West’ which in Moscow-speak means ‘daring to hold elections without our permission.’ Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a man who apparently missed the memo that the only acceptable foreign policy in the post-Soviet space is enthusiastic grovelling, has been defiant. ‘We are sovereign,’ he said, as the Kremlin sharpened its rhetorical knives.
Let’s be clear: Armenia has about as much chance of escaping Moscow’s orbit as a moth escaping a very large, very drunk spider. The Kremlin plays the long game. It has bases, it has pipelines, and it has a bottomless supply of passive-aggressive press releases. Meanwhile, Pashinyan, a former journalist with a degree in moxie, is trying to pivot towards the EU, NATO, and anyone who will give him a hug. It’s like watching a hedgehog try to adopt a tiger.
The latest Kremlin hissy-fit came after Armenia hosted EU monitors along its border with Azerbaijan. The EU, bless its bureaucratic heart, sent a bunch of clipboard-wielding officials to ‘observe’. Moscow saw this as a frontal assault on its sphere of influence and promptly accused Armenia of ‘stoking tensions’. Oh, the irony. Russia has been arming Azerbaijan, stoking tensions, and generally playing the role of the grumpy uncle who breaks the toys just to prove he can. And now it’s upset that Armenia is looking for other playmates?
But here’s the thing: Armenia is in a bind. It’s small, landlocked, and surrounded by neighbours who would rather see it wiped off the map. Russia, for all its bullying, is still the only game in town when it comes to security guarantees. Or is it? The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war showed that Russia’s ‘peacekeeping’ has the shelf life of a wet newspaper. Armenia lost the war, lost territory, and lost faith in Big Brother. So now it’s flirting with the West. And the West, ever the coquette, sends a few monitors and a strongly worded statement.
Pashinyan, bless his cotton socks, talks of diversifying foreign policy. But diversification requires options. At the moment, Armenia’s options are: (a) submit to Russia and become a vassal state, or (b) defy Russia and become a vassal state in a slightly different colour of shackles. The West is not going to send tanks for Armenia. It might send some humanitarian aid and a photo op with an EU flag, but when the phantom tanks roll, the Kremlin is the one with the phone numbers that get answered.
So what does this mean? It means more twitchy Twitter diplomacy, more threats of gas price hikes, and more of that uniquely Russian blend of menace and Monday-morning-quarterbacking. Meanwhile, the people of Armenia go about their business, wondering if their children will live in a country where sovereignty is more than a word on a poster.
I’m off for a gin. A large one. With a slice of lemon and a side of existential dread.
