Gustavo Petro, the left-wing bogeyman of Colombian politics, has finally called it quits. The concession speech was short. Defeated. The man who promised to nationalise oil fields and throw out British investors has packed his bags. London exhales.
City sources tell me the champagne corks popped in Canary Wharf around 3pm. One trader put it bluntly: "Petro out means our pensions stay safe."
But let's not get carried away. This was not a landslide for the establishment. It was a close-run thing. Polling data showed Petro within spitting distance of victory in the final week. The British Embassy in Bogotá was drafting contingency plans. I'm told they were looking at evacuation routes for staff families. That is how close it got.
So what happened? The usual story. Fear. The establishment rallied. The army issued a thinly veiled warning. The middle classes panicked. And Petro's coalition, always a fragile thing, fractured under the pressure. One of his key allies, a former guerrilla turned senator, jumped ship at the last minute. Leaked WhatsApp messages showed him cutting a deal with the conservative candidate. The details are murky. But the result is clear.
Now the question: What does this mean for British investment? In the short term, safety. The new president, a technocrat from the centre-right, has already called the British ambassador. Promises of stability. Open for business. The energy giants with Colombian assets can sleep easy.
But I hear whispers of discontent. The peace deal with the FARC, brokered by Britain and Norway, is fragile. The new man in Bogotá has been critical of it. He talks tough on rural crime. That could rattle the cage. And if the countryside erupts again, investment flows start to dry up.
Behind the scenes, the real battle begins. The British government wants to lock in a free trade agreement before the dust settles. Trade Secretary is on speed dial. But the Colombians are playing hardball. They want more access for their agricultural goods. British farmers won't like that.
And what of Petro? He's gone quiet. But his supporters haven't. They are young. They are angry. And they have learned a lesson: the old system still works. For now. But the seeds of rebellion are sown. Next time, it might be different.
For the City, this is a reprieve. Not a victory. The clock is ticking.
