The drone air alert that sent Lithuanian leadership into shelter is not a random occurrence. It is a calibrated probe, a stress test of NATO's eastern air defence network. The choice of drones is deliberate: low-cost, difficult to detect, deniable.
This is a rehearsal for a larger saturation attack designed to overwhelm layered defences. The UK's reinforcement of the eastern flank is a necessary but insufficient response. Bolstering air policing and rotational deployments is reactive.
The threat vector is electronic warfare and drone swarms, not tanks. NATO must pivot to distributed, mobile counter-UAS systems and hardened command nodes. The Baltic states are the tripwire.
Every incursion is a data harvest for our adversaries. We are watching a strategic reconnaissance in real time.
