The Kremlin is nursing a hangover this morning. Armenia’s voters have handed a decisive victory to the pro-Western Civil Contract party. The message from Yerevan is clear: Moscow’s grip on the Caucasus is slipping.
This is not just a routine election. This is a geopolitical earthquake in a region Russia has long considered its backyard. The result is a personal humiliation for Vladimir Putin. He has spent years propping up the old guard. It hasn’t worked.
Westminster types will be watching closely. The implications for British foreign policy are significant. A democratic, pro-EU Armenia opens up new trade and security corridors. It also exposes Russia’s eastern flank. No wonder the Foreign Office is quietly cheering.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is still a fragile democracy. The new government faces a mountain of challenges. Corruption is endemic. The economy is a mess. And Russia still has a military base on Armenian soil.
The real action will be in the backrooms of Brussels and Washington. Expect frantic diplomatic activity. The West will want to lock in this allegiance. The Russians will plot their revenge. This is a game of chess, not checkers.
For now, though, the champagne corks are popping in the liberal think tanks. The victory is a rare win for the ‘rules-based order’. But as every political hack knows, winning an election is the easy bit. Governing is where the trouble starts.
Keep your eyes on the ceasefire line with Azerbaijan. That is where the next crisis will erupt. Russia will try to destabilise the new government. They have the playbook, they know the moves.
But for one day at least, the Caucasus has a new sheriff. And he is looking west.
