A new centrist party in Australia has launched, and Westminster is watching. The exit of liberal faction figures from the Australian Liberal Party, branding themselves as ‘The Centrists,’ has triggered a wave of leaking and briefing inside British political circles. Strategists on both sides of the Commons are already drawing parallels to the UK’s own gridlocked centre ground.
Sources inside Labour’s campaign machine are privately admitting they see a model for breaking the Tory stranglehold on moderate voters. One shadow cabinet adviser told me: “The Australian playbook is simple. You take the socially liberal, economically responsible voters who are sick of the culture wars. You offer them a home. You win seats in the suburbs.” That is the theory. The practice, as the Liberal Democrats and Change UK have proven, is brutal.
The Australian party is led by former Liberal ministers who cite climate inaction and internal party dysfunction as their reason for departure. They are eyeing the teal independent movement that has already reshaped Australian politics. In the UK, the equivalent ground is held by the Liberal Democrats, who have failed to break through despite Tory infighting. But the strategists I speak to believe the Australian model could offer a new path.
“The teals worked because they were local, they were moderate, and they weren’t seen as a protest vote,” a former Number 10 pollster told me. “You replicate that in the UK, you target the Blue Wall seats, you go after the voters who backed Remain but hate Corbyn. That coalition exists.” The question is who leads it. The Liberal Democrats’ Ed Davey is seen as too left-wing by some of these strategists. The talk is of a new vehicle, perhaps funded by a big donor, that would field candidates in the 40-50 most winnable seats against Tory MPs.
But the obstacles remain immense. The British electoral system punishes centrist fragmentation. The Australian party is launching ahead of a federal election due within a year. In the UK, the next general election is at most two years away. Time is short. And the history of centrist projects in Britain is littered with failure. The SDP split from Labour in 1981 and eventually merged with the Liberals. Change UK lasted months. The Independent Group for Change was a footnote.
Yet the demand is there. Polling by YouGov this week showed 38% of voters would consider backing a new centrist party. That number rises to 52% among Remain voters. The Tories are haemorrhaging moderate support to Labour, but Labour is losing left-wing voters to the Greens and independents. The gap in the middle is growing.
A senior Tory backbencher, who is close to the One Nation group of MPs, was blunt: “The Australian situation should terrify us. We are fighting a war on two fronts. We lose the centre, we lose the election. But our party won’t move on net zero or social issues.” The quiet murmurs of a breakaway from the Conservative Party have not gone away. Some MPs are watching the Australian launch as a dry run for their own departure.
The Australians are not deluded. Their launch event was modest, a pub in Melbourne. But the coverage in the UK has been disproportionate. That is because it speaks to a yearning among British centrists for a new vehicle. The Liberal Democrats are too weak. Labour is too left. The Tories are too right. The space is open. But someone has to fill it. And the lesson from Australia is that it takes more than a press release and a few empty seats in a room.
Watch this space. The leaks are coming.
