The wolves are circling Whitehall. Word from the Treasury this morning is that Canada’s economic wobble has officials dusting off old trade contingency plans. The mood? Not panic, but opportunity.
Sources close to the Chancellor confirm that a quiet working group has been reactivated. Its brief: map out a rapid pivot towards deeper UK-Canada trade ties if Ottawa’s situation deteriorates further. The group, codenamed ‘Project Maple’, was mothballed after Brexit deal talks stalled. Now it’s back with a vengeance.
Why now? Canada’s economy is showing cracks. Housing market cooling, inflation stickier than a toffee pudding. The Bank of Canada is caught between a rate hike and a hard place. The UK Treasury sees a chance to offer a lifeline and, in doing so, secure favourable terms for British exports.
This is classic Whitehall opportunism. The UK has been desperate to prove post-Brexit trade deals work. Canada is a familiar partner, but negotiations have dragged. The thinking is that a cash-strapped Canada might be more willing to concede on tariffs for British cars, whisky, and financial services.
But there’s a catch. The Foreign Office is nervous. They fear being seen as vultures picking over a wounded ally. One FCO mandarin described the Treasury’s enthusiasm as “unseemly”. The PM’s office is caught in the middle, with No.10 keen on a win but wary of diplomatic blowback.
The game is moving fast. Expect whispers of a virtual summit between the Chancellor and his Canadian counterpart in the coming weeks. The deal is not done, but the ground is shifting. Watch this space.
