It is the sort of thought that would once have been unthinkable in Ottawa. But in the age of Trump, Canadian federalists are starting to dream of an American birthday party.
Sources close to the Prime Minister’s Office confirm that Justin Trudeau’s team has been quietly exploring the possibility of a goodwill gesture to mark the United States’ 250th anniversary of independence in 2026. The plan, still in its infancy, would involve Canadian athletes marching under a shared continental banner at the Los Angeles Olympics, or perhaps a joint state visit to Philadelphia.
But the symbolism is not lost on anyone. The idea of a ‘North American union’ was once a fringe notion confined to libertarian think-tanks. Now it is being whispered about in the corridors of Parliament Hill.
Why the shift? The answer lies in polling data. A recent Abacus Data survey found that 35% of Canadians under 35 would support joining the United States if it meant escaping the Trump tariff wars. That number is up from 15% in 2015. The old certainties are crumbling.
One senior Liberal strategist told me: “We are seeing a generational fracture. Young Canadians do not remember the flag debate. They see a dynamic, aspirational America and a Canada that is mired in housing crises and pipeline fights. The PM knows he has to offer a new vision, or risk losing them.”
That vision appears to be a soft pivot towards closer integration. Quietly, without fanfare, Canadian diplomats have been sounding out their US counterparts on a ‘memorandum of understanding’ for post-2025 cooperation. The goal: to make Canada so indispensable to the American economy that any future populist cannot tear up the relationship.
But there are risks. The hard-left of the NDP is already accusing Trudeau of “selling out sovereignty”. And the Conservative Party is watching with eagle eyes. One shadow minister told me this morning: “If this gets out, it will be 1993 all over again. Canadians do not want to be the 51st state.”
Still, the dream persists. In private, Trudeau’s advisors speak of a “transformational moment” if the 250th celebrations can be used to rebrand Canada as a co-founder of the North American project. They point to the success of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics in boosting national pride.
The White House has so far been silent. But Trump’s trade envoy, Robert Lighthizer, is said to be “intrigued” by the idea of a deeper economic pact that locks in Canadian energy and water.
For now, it is all conjecture. But in the bars of Ottawa, the talk is of a quiet revolution. Canada, they say, is starting to dream of a shared future with its southern neighbour. The question is: will that dream break the country?
Backbench MPs are jittery. Letters are being drafted. The game is on.
Watch this space.
