The St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s flagship showcase for investment and policy dialogue, opened today under an unprecedented security cloud. A series of drone attacks on the city’s outskirts have rattled delegates and underscored the escalation of conflict on home soil. At least three unmanned aerial vehicles were intercepted by Russian air defence systems in the early hours, officials confirmed. No casualties were reported, but the strikes targeted infrastructure near the forum venue, a stark reminder that no part of Russia is immune from the war’s reach.
The event, once a glittering summit for global financiers, has seen its guest list shrink dramatically since the invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions have isolated Russia’s economy, and the forum now serves more as a stage for Kremlin messaging than a genuine business hub. This year’s theme, ‘Sovereign Development as the Foundation of a Just World Order’, is a clear rebuke to Western dominance. Yet the drone attacks, claimed by Ukrainian sources as part of ongoing operations, have drawn attention to Russia’s vulnerability.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking at the opening plenary, attempted to project normalcy. “Our economy is adapting, growing, and developing despite external pressure,” he declared. The International Monetary Fund projects modest growth of 2.6% for Russia this year, driven by military production and energy exports. But inflation hovers near 8%, and a labour shortage caused by mobilisation and emigration is choking civilian sectors.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom used the occasion to reaffirm its stance. Foreign Secretary David Cameron, in a statement timed with the forum, announced further sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure and military supply chains. “We will not be swayed by propaganda or theatrics,” he said. The UK has committed £2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year, including long-range strike systems capable of reaching into Russian territory. British officials have not commented directly on the St Petersburg attacks, but the subtext is clear: Ukraine has a right to self-defence, including on Russian soil.
The drone strikes themselves are part of a broader pattern. Ukraine has developed a domestically produced drone arsenal, capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometres inside Russia. These attacks, while militarily modest, serve a psychological purpose. They bring the war home to ordinary Russians, disrupting the narrative of a ‘special military operation’ far from their lives. The economic forum, intended to broadcast stability, now inadvertently broadcasts vulnerability.
Energy markets, already volatile, showed little immediate reaction. European natural gas prices remain subdued, a legacy of mild weather and high storage levels. But the geopolitics are shifting. India and China continue to purchase Russian oil at discounted rates, cushioning Moscow’s revenues. Yet the technology war is biting: Russia’s oil refineries have been forced to slow output due to a shortage of Western-made turbines and control systems, a direct consequence of sanctions.
For the biosphere, the war’s carbon cost is grim. Military operations, reconstruction, and diverted investments from green transitions all add to emissions. Ukraine’s energy grid, pummelled by Russian strikes, now relies on emergency diesel generators. The conflict’s total carbon footprint is approaching 100 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, a Lancet report calculated earlier this year. Every tank of fuel burned in the Donbas is a deposit in our planetary deficit.
As the forum continues, the UK’s resolve appears unchanged. Western allies are coordinating on a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s circumvention networks. The drones over St Petersburg are a reminder that this war is not a distant conflict but a continental crisis. The economic forum may paint a picture of resilience, but the reality is a state under siege, both militarily and economically. And for the rest of us, watching from a warming planet, the lesson is that instability breeds emissions, and emissions breed instability. The cycle must break somewhere. But not today.
In the halls of St Petersburg, delegates clink glasses of Crimean wine. Outside, air raid sirens wail. The dissonance is the story of our age.
