The Ethiopian Prime Minister has secured a landslide victory. But there is no champagne in Whitehall. British aid groups are already whispering of a new civil war. The fear is that the mandate will be used to crush dissent. Not to build peace.
I spoke to a senior relief worker this morning. “This is not a democratic triumph,” she said. “It is a blank cheque for further violence.” The numbers bear her out. The PM’s coalition took more than 80% of the vote. Opposition parties are crying foul. International monitors are silent.
The real drama is in the margins. The turnout in Tigray was negligible. A clear sign that the region has not been pacified. It has been made a no-go zone for elections. The disenfranchised will turn to arms. It is a pattern we have seen before.
Ministers here are publicly welcoming the result. They need a partner in Addis. China is circling. But privately, the fear is growing. The Foreign Office has received multiple briefings from NGOs. The prognosis is stark. “A frozen conflict is melting,” one diplomat told me. “And we will be the ones holding the bucket.”
The next 48 hours are crucial. The PM will name his cabinet. Watch for the appointment of a hardliner as defence minister. That will be the signal. The aid organisations are already drawing up contingency plans. They know the script. It never ends well.
