The counting is over. The result is a foregone conclusion. Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has swept the polls. A landslide, they call it. But behind the official figures, whispers of a stolen mandate. British diplomats in Addis Ababa are now drafting urgent cables. The message is clear: this victory threatens to unravel the fragile peace in the Horn of Africa.
The government insists the election was free and fair. International observers disagree. They point to widespread irregularities, voter intimidation, and a crackdown on opposition voices. The TPLF, the former ruling party from Tigray, remains banned. Its leaders are either in jail or in exile. The result is a parliament that looks like a rubber stamp. No dissent. No real debate.
Downing Street is worried. Not about the democracy deficit. That is old news in this part of the world. The real fear is about what comes next. The Amhara region is simmering. Armed groups there have already clashed with federal forces. Oromia, the most populous region, is a tinderbox. The Oromo Liberation Army is still fighting in the countryside. And Tigray? That wound is far from healed. The two-year war there left hundreds of thousands dead. The peace deal is fragile at best.
A source in the Foreign Office told me this morning: "The Prime Minister’s blank cheque to Abiy Ahmed is no longer credible. We need to recalibrate. Fast."
Why now? Because the election result gives Abiy a mandate to push ahead with his centralisation agenda. He wants to dissolve the ethnic-based federal system. He wants a strong, unified state. That sounds good on paper. But in practice, it means crushing regional autonomy. The very regions that fought for decades to gain it.
The British embassy has been tracking the rhetoric. Abiy’s speeches have grown more nationalistic. He talks of enemies within. He talks of purging the state. Sound familiar? It should. The playbook is straight out of authoritarian populism 101.
There is also the diplomatic fallout. Egypt and Sudan are watching closely. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is still a point of contention. A more assertive Ethiopia could mean a more dangerous standoff over Nile waters. The Gulf states are hedging. They have invested heavily in Abiy. But they are also keeping channels open to the rebels.
The real game changer, however, is Somalia. Ethiopian troops are part of the African Union mission there. But Abiy has been flexing his muscles. He recently signed a controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland. That infuriated Mogadishu. Now, with a fresh mandate, he might push for more. A direct confrontation with Somalia is no longer a fantasy.
Back in Westminster, the Foreign Affairs Committee is demanding answers. They want a briefing on the election and its implications. The government is reluctant. They do not want to burn bridges with a key ally in the war on terror. But the backbenchers are restless. They remember the mistakes in Iraq. They do not want a repeat in the Horn.
One senior Tory told me: "We cannot keep propping up a strongman and call it stability. That is a recipe for disaster."
The coming weeks will be critical. Abiy will likely move fast to consolidate power. He will reshuffle the military and security services. He will crack down on any dissent. The diplomatic community is bracing for a wave of arrests.
Meanwhile, the refugees keep coming. The hunger keeps spreading. The war in Tigray may have ended, but the suffering continues. And now, a new crisis looms. The Horn of Africa is once again a powder keg. And this time, the fuse is lit from within.
I will be watching the cables. I will be talking to my sources. The story is far from over. Stay tuned.