Xi Jinping’s first visit to North Korea in 14 years lands at a geopolitical flashpoint. The timing is deliberate. As denuclearisation talks stall and Pyongyang’s missile tests accelerate, Beijing is signalling that its alliance with Kim Jong Un is not merely symbolic but strategic.
The optics are carefully choreographed. A meeting in Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace, attended by Kim’s sister and top military officials. State media will call it a “historic reaffirmation of bilateral friendship”. In reality, China is reminding Washington that it holds the key to any Korean Peninsula settlement.
Why now? North Korea’s recent weapons tests violate UN sanctions. Donald Trump’s Hanoi summit collapsed. Joe Biden’s administration has offered talks without preconditions, but Kim demands relief first. Xi’s presence serves three purposes: to show solidarity with a besieged ally, to counter US influence in the region, and to secure North Korean support in China’s economic struggles.
The economic dimension is often overlooked. North Korea is a net importer of Chinese goods; bilateral trade hit nearly $3 billion in 2022. For a China facing Western sanctions and a property crisis, sustaining that market matters. But the leverage cuts both ways. Pyongyang depends on Beijing for food, fuel, and diplomatic cover at the UN.
Environmental analysts note a bleak backdrop. North Korea’s deforestation and resource extraction are stark. Satellite imagery shows logging along the Tumen River near China’s border. The visit offers an opportunity for Xi to push for sustainable forestry, though it is unlikely to be prioritised over strategic interests.
The immediate risk is that Xi’s show of support emboldens Kim to escalate. A seventh nuclear test is expected. Missile launches could resume. Washington’s response will be measured, but the US has little leverage without China’s cooperation on sanctions enforcement.
For Xi, the calculus is personal. Unlike previous visits by his predecessors, he seeks a legacy as a global peacemaker. Yet this comes at a cost: legitimising a regime that has committed widespread human rights abuses. The moral ambiguity sits uneasily with China’s claims of leading a more ethical world order.
As the motorcade leaves, the real question is whether this is friendship or leverage. The answer will determine not just the Korean Peninsula’s fate but the stability of Northeast Asia.
