The Iran nuclear deal is back from the dead. Sources inside the Foreign Office tell me the UK is pushing hard for a seat at the table as Washington and Tehran edge towards a new agreement. The phrase being whispered in Whitehall corridors: ‘never closer’.
But this isn’t 2015. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is a ghost. What’s emerging is a bilateral US-Iran understanding, with the EU and UK scrambling for relevance. The British demand? A direct role in negotiations, not just a watching brief.
Why now? Three reasons. First, the IAEA’s latest report shows Iran’s uranium enrichment at 60% – a scream for a deal. Second, the Biden administration, distracted by Ukraine and Gaza, needs a win. Third, the UK sees a moment to reassert itself as a diplomatic player post-Brexit.
But the game is brutal. The Americans are playing hard. They want the UK to deliver European allies, particularly France and Germany, who are sceptical of any deal that doesn’t roll back Iran’s missile programme. The UK’s offer? To use its intelligence channels with Israel to reassure Netanyahu – a move that could blow up in their faces.
Inside the Foreign Office, the mood is a mix of hope and dread. One official told me: ‘We’re either about to pull off a diplomatic masterstroke or get our fingers burned. There is no middle ground.’
Downing Street is watching closely. Starmer’s government needs a foreign policy success. The Iran deal could be it – but only if they play the angles right. The backbenches are restless; any hint of being soft on Iran will trigger letters of no confidence.
The next 48 hours are critical. Envoys are shuttling between Vienna, Tel Aviv, and London. The question is not if a deal will be signed, but who will be in the room when it is signed. The UK wants that seat. They might just get it.
