The Middle East is on a knife edge tonight. Israel has launched a series of air strikes deep into southern Lebanon. The target? Hezbollah positions. The response from the Iran-backed militia was immediate and furious. They have fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel. Iron Dome interceptors are lighting up the sky over Haifa. The IDF confirms no casualties. Yet.
But here is the detail the Ministry of Defence is trying to downplay. RAF assets are now monitoring the escalation. A Typhoon squadron based in Cyprus has been placed on 'heightened readiness'. Defence sources also confirm that a Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft is orbiting over the eastern Mediterranean. Its mission: to scoop up electronic intelligence from Hezbollah comms and Israeli air force frequencies. Whitehall is worried. A wider war would destabilise the entire region. Remember the 2006 war? This has the potential to be worse.
Hezbollah has more firepower now. Thousands of precision-guided missiles. And they have learned from Hamas. Tunnels. Drones. The Israelis know this. Which is why they are striking pre-emptively. But the question is: will it work? Or will it trigger a full-scale conflict?
Downing Street is trying to walk a tightrope. They fully support Israel's right to self-defence. But privately, there is alarm. The PM's phone has been red hot. Calls to Macron, Scholz, and Biden. All urging restraint. But Israel is in no mood for restraint. The security cabinet met for six hours today. The mood was hawkish. 'We will not return to the situation before October 7,' one minister told me.
And what of Hezbollah? Their leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is due to speak tonight. Expect fire and brimstone. But also expect a calculation. Hezbollah does not want to be destroyed. But they cannot be seen as weak. So the rhetoric will be tough. The actions may be calibrated. But one miscalculation could tip the region into chaos.
The diplomatic dance is frantic. British embassy staff in Beirut have been told to restrict movements. Non-essential personnel are being considered for evacuation. The Foreign Office has updated travel advice: 'avoid all travel to southern Lebanon'. That is the easiest warning they will issue tonight.
What happens next depends on Hezbollah's response. If they escalate, Israel will escalate back. The US has already moved an amphibious assault group closer to the coast. A signal of intent. The White House wants this contained. But they know that may not be possible.
For now, the RAF is watching. Listening. Ready to extract British nationals if needed. But the nightmare scenario is a multi-front war. Gaza simmers. The West Bank is tense. And now Lebanon. The region is a powder keg. And the fuse is getting shorter.
I will be updating this live blog through the night. Stay with us.
