The bombs fell at dusk. A full city block in southern Beirut, now a crater. Israeli jets, precision-guided to the minute, levelled a residential district. The target: a senior Hezbollah commander. But the body count? Civilian. Always civilians.
This is not a reprisal. This is a message. Sent from Tel Aviv to Beirut, via a 2,000-pound bunker buster. The message is clear: no sanctuary. Not in tunnels, not in suburbs, not in the heart of a capital.
I’m hearing from a defence source that the target was al-Hajj Radwan, head of Hezbollah’s external operations. The same Radwan who, intel says, was planning a 'October 7-style' incursion into the Golan. But this 'targeted' strike levelled an entire apartment building. At least nine dead, some reports say forty. The numbers are still fluid as rescue teams dig through the rubble.
The timing is everything. This comes 48 hours after Netanyahu’s cabinet authorised 'decisive action' against Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit. The PM is under pressure from the right flank to prove he can ‘finish the job’ in Gaza while opening a northern front. This is that opening. A door blown off its hinges.
Whitehall is watching closely. A senior Foreign Office official told me they were 'not consulted' but had been 'informed in advance'. The same official used the word 'dangerous escalation'. That is Whitehall code for 'we are deeply worried but will say nothing in public'.
Now, the political calculus. Netanyahu is walking a tightrope. His coalition wobbles. He wants to show strength before the Knesset recess. But each strike like this risks drawing Hezbollah into a full-scale war. And Hezbollah’s arsenal is not Hamas’s. It’s a different ballgame. Thousands of precision-guided missiles. The ability to strike anywhere in Israel. The Iron Dome cannot hold forever.
Back in Beirut, the streets are emptying. Hezbollah’s response? So far, measured. Several rocket salvoes into northern Israel. No major damage. They are saving their powder. They know the rules of this game. Escalate gradually. Force Israel to overreach.
But here is the rub. The Biden administration, distracted by its own election, is losing influence. The French have tried to mediate, but Hezbollah will not deal. The UNIFIL force? A paper tiger. So we are drifting toward a war nobody wants but nobody can stop.
I get a text from a contact in the Israeli Ministry of Defence. 'Don’t worry. We know where his bunker is.' That is the arrogance of power. And the fuel for the next cycle of vengeance.
For now, the Lebanon-Israel border is a ticking bomb. And the fuse? Getting shorter by the hour.
