Tokyo has unveiled its largest military buildup since the Second World War. A 43 trillion yen (£235 billion) five-year plan that doubles defence spending and shifts Japan from a purely self-defence posture to one capable of striking enemy bases. The government calls it ‘necessary to prevent war’. Critics call it a blank cheque for the arms lobby.
Sources in Whitehall confirm that British defence contractors are already in advanced talks with Japanese counterparts. BAE Systems, MBDA, and Rolls-Royce stand to gain from joint development of next-generation fighter jets, missile systems, and naval assets. A memorandum of understanding is expected within weeks.
‘This is not about dragging Japan into conflict,’ a senior Ministry of Defence source told me. ‘It is about ensuring that the rules-based international order has the teeth to deter aggressors. Britain is a natural partner, given our shared values and technological edge.’
But the money trail tell a different story. Uncovered documents from the Department for International Trade show that the UK has been lobbying Tokyo for years to align its procurement rules with NATO standards. The goal is to make it easier for British firms to sell weapons to Japan. And it is working.
Japan’s decision to acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States, and to develop a new fighter jet with the UK and Italy, represents a fundamental break from its pacifist constitution. Article 9, imposed by Washington after 1945, limited Japan’s military to strictly defensive capabilities. Now, that is being reinterpreted to allow ‘counterstrike’ capabilities.
‘The constitutional argument is a smokescreen,’ said a former Japanese diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. ‘The real driver is the desire to protect Japanese corporate interests in the South China Sea and to counter China’s assertiveness. The arms industry is the biggest beneficiary.’
Indeed, Japanese defence contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries are seeing their share prices soar. They are also partnering with British firms on technology transfer, giving London leverage over future export markets.
The British government’s own ‘Global Britain’ strategy explicitly identifies Japan as a ‘priority partner’ for defence exports. A leaked memo from UK Trade & Investment, obtained by this publication, states that ‘Japan offers a gateway to the Indo-Pacific, a region where we can project influence and sell our most advanced systems.’
Human rights groups are raising alarms. ‘The UK is fuelling an arms race in Asia,’ said a spokesperson for Campaign Against Arms Trade. ‘Japan’s neighbours, including China and North Korea, will inevitably respond. This is not a path to peace. It is a path to proliferation.’
But the money is too good to ignore. The British defence industry employs over 150,000 people and generates £37 billion in annual revenue. With the war in Ukraine straining stockpiles and Europe rearming, the Japanese market offers a lucrative new frontier.
I spoke to a former BAE Systems executive who now works as a consultant in Tokyo. ‘Japan has the budget, the technology, and the will. They just don’t have the experience of operating at scale. That is where British firms come in. We can help them build a war machine that is interoperable with ours.’
Critics argue that this interoperability is a trap. Once Japan adopts British standards and platforms, it will be locked into long-term procurement relationships that are difficult to break. The same playbook was used in the Gulf, where British arms sales created decades of dependency.
Meanwhile, the Japanese public remains deeply divided. Polls show that a majority oppose revising Article 9. The government has sought to downplay the shift, framing it as a necessary adaptation to a changing security environment. But the scale of the ramp-up suggests otherwise.
‘This is not a tweak. This is a transformation,’ said a retired Japanese general who now advises think tanks. ‘We are building the infrastructure for power projection. Drones. Long-range missiles. Aircraft carriers. Once the factories are running, the political momentum will be unstoppable.’
And British industry will be right there, hands in the cookie jar, selling the tools of war under the banner of peace.
Follow the money. It always leads to the truth.
