The optics are terrible. Westminster is watching closely as Myanmar's junta-backed president lands in New Delhi today. This is a diplomatic tightrope for the UK's much-vaunted Indo-Pacific tilt.
Behind the scenes, Foreign Office mandarins are sweating. They know the visit looks like a legitimisation of a regime accused of ethnic cleansing. But realpolitik dictates: India needs energy. Myanmar has gas. And India won't be told what to do by former colonial powers.
The thing is, the UK's entire Indo-Pacific strategy rests on partnerships with democracies. India is the pivot. Yet here is Narendra Modi greeting a general while ethnic cleansing in Rakhine continues. The cognitive dissonance is deafening.
Backbenchers are restless. Labour's Diane Abbott has already tabled a question. Expect more to come. The Foreign Affairs Committee is rumoured to be considering an inquiry into UK-India relations. This is a powder keg.
The real calculation? Whitehall knows that isolating Myanmar achieves nothing. But the domestic political price of appearing soft on human rights is high. The PM's team is briefing that this is a “pragmatic engagement”. Translation: we need India more than Myanmar needs a moral rebuke.
The numbers game is brutal. China is already courting Myanmar's junta with arms deals and infrastructure cash. If the UK and India push too hard, Naypyidaw swings further into Beijing's orbit. That is the nightmare scenario for the Indo-Pacific strategy.
So expect a carefully choreographed visit. Modi will offer development aid. There will be photo-ops on connectivity projects. The Myanmar president will nod. No mention of the Rohingya. It is the diplomacy of the deaf.
What does this mean for the UK? The government's claim that it is “standing up for human rights” in the Indo-Pacific is wearing thin. Allies are rolling their eyes. The real test will come at the next UN vote on Myanmar. If the UK abstains again, the hypocrisy will be laid bare.
The lobbying is intense. Business groups want trade deals with India. The military wants joint exercises. Both are quietly pressing No. 10 to downplay the visit. Meanwhile, Amnesty International is mobilising. Expect a coordinated media push tomorrow.
I hear that the UK ambassador to Myanmar has been sidelined in all this. He is seen as too critical of the junta. His cables are being ignored. That tells you everything about the hierarchy of priorities in this government.
In the Lobby, the whisper is that this visit could be the first real fracture in the Indo-Pacific strategy. If Labour makes it a political issue, the government will have to recalibrate. But with a general election looming, no one in Downing Street wants a foreign policy row. Easier to let it slide.
The truth is, the UK's post-Brexit pivot to Asia was always more rhetoric than reality. We have limited leverage. And when push comes to shove, trade trumps values. Myanmar is just the latest example.
Watch for the statement from the Foreign Office later today. It will be carefully worded. Expect phrases like “constructive engagement” and “shared regional stability”. Do not expect an outright condemnation. That is how the game is played.
The scorecard? India gets gas. Myanmar gets a veneer of legitimacy. The UK gets to pretend it matters in a region where it has few cards. And the Rohingya? They are forgotten. Same as always.
