London, 8:30 AM – The black stuff is sliding. Brent crude has crashed below $70 a barrel, a level not seen since before the Iran crisis erupted. For observers like me, who watched the escalation with dismay, this is the market doing what it does best: betting on peace.
The immediate trigger appears to be a surprise diplomatic breakthrough, but the real story is the fiscal hangover. Lower oil means lower inflation, which means the Bank of England might finally get some breathing space. Yet I remain cautious.
This is a volatile world, and gilt yields are still twitchy. The real test is whether this deflationary shock sticks, or if it's just another false dawn. For British motorists, the relief at the pump is welcome.
But don't crack open the champagne just yet. The market is pricing in a ceasefire, but history tells us that peace is often just a pause before the next shock.
