The figures are out. And they are brutal. Only 75.4 per cent of first-class mail hit its one-day target in the first quarter of this year. The regulator, Ofcom, demands 93 per cent. The gap is not a miss. It is a chasm. Down from 81 per cent last year. A slide that has been accelerating since the pandemic.
Whispers from inside the Mail's boardroom suggest a quiet panic. The universal service obligation is collapsing. The old business model is dead. But no one in Whitehall wants to admit it. The government is paralysed. They fear the political cost of letting the Royal Mail fail. But they also fear the cost of saving it.
Sources close to the Business Secretary tell me the real worry is the universal service obligation itself. It is a 19th century relic. But it is politically untouchable. Every MP has a village post office in their constituency. Every backbencher remembers the last time they tried to reform it. The backlash was fierce. The unions called it a privatisation by stealth. The Labour benches howled.
Now the numbers are forcing the issue. Ofcom is sharpening its knives. They have already slapped Royal Mail with a £1.5 million fine for missing targets. But that is pocket change. The real penalty is reputational. And it is starting to hurt. Businesses are fleeing. Large contracts are being lost to competitors. The Amazon effect is real. Parcels are king. Letters are a dying art.
But here is the thing no one is saying out loud. The Royal Mail’s management wants reform. They have been quietly lobbying for a relaxation of the universal service obligation for years. They want to scrap Saturday deliveries. They want to slow down first-class post. They call it modernisation. The unions call it a betrayal.
I am told the CEO has a private meeting scheduled with the Permanent Secretary at the Department for Business next week. The agenda is not public. But you can bet the universal service obligation will be the main course. Expect a leak afterwards. A carefully chosen leak to test the waters. To see if the political temperature has changed.
It has not. Not yet. The polling data is clear. The public does not trust the government with their post. They see it as a national institution. Like the NHS. But the economics are brutal. Letters are down 20 per cent year on year. No amount of stamp price increases can fix that.
So what happens next? A slow decline. More missed targets. More fines. More stories like this one. Until the crisis becomes unavoidable. Then a white paper. Then a fight. And finally, a half-hearted reform that pleases no one. That is the Westminster way. We have seen this game before. The Royal Mail is just the latest in a long line of dying institutions that we refuse to let go.
I will keep watching. The lobby is buzzing. Everyone is waiting for the next leak. The next briefing. The next sign of movement. For now, the post is delayed. The clock is ticking. And no one in power wants to be the one to say: it is time to let go.
