A confidential Whitehall policy paper has warned that the Trump administration’s vision for the Middle East, orchestrated in lockstep with Benjamin Netanyahu, risks plunging the region into a permanent state of crisis. Sources inside the Foreign Office have confirmed to this publication that the document, circulated to senior ministers last week, paints a bleak picture of escalating conflict and humanitarian collapse if the current trajectory is not reversed.
The paper, marked “For UK Eyes Only – Not for Distribution,” argues that the so-called “deal of the century” – a euphemism for US-brokered plans that effectively legitimise illegal settlements and annexation – is a recipe for disaster. It states that such a scenario would not only destabilise the Palestinian territories but also create a “vacuum of authority” that extremist groups would inevitably fill. One senior diplomat described the outlook as a “permacrisis”, a term borrowed from economic theory to describe a state of perpetual emergency.
Leaked documents obtained by this paper reveal that UK intelligence agencies have already detected a surge in recruitment by militant organisations across the region, directly linked to the collapse of the peace process. The policy paper explicitly calls out the Trump-Netanyahu alliance for “weaponising” the peace process to further a right-wing agenda. It notes that the US administration has effectively abandoned the two-state solution, a cornerstone of international diplomacy for decades.
The timing of the leak is critical. With US elections looming, the Trump team is desperate for a foreign policy win. But the paper suggests that any such victory would be pyrrhic. It cites economic modelling showing that a permanent crisis would cost the UK billions in lost trade and security cooperation. More pressingly, it warns of a “domino effect” that could engulf Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
One source, a former MI6 officer with deep contacts in the region, put it bluntly: “This isn’t about peace. It’s about power. Trump and Netanyahu are playing a dangerous game, and the rest of us are left holding the bill.” The source added that internal Foreign Office assessments suggest the policy has “no exit strategy”, leaving the UK exposed.
The paper recommends that the UK government distance itself from the US-Israel axis, even if it means tarnishing the “special relationship”. It suggests reviving the European Union’s role as a mediator and pushing for a renewed UN mandate. But with Brexit looming, Britain’s influence on the world stage is waning.
A spokesperson for the Foreign Office declined to comment on the contents, citing protocol, but a backbench MP with knowledge of the briefing told me: “We’re sleepwalking into a catastrophe. The paper is a wake-up call, but whether anyone in No. 10 is listening is another matter.”
The copy of the policy paper I have seen includes a stark conclusion: the Middle East peace process is not just stalled but dead. And in its place stands a machine for generating endless conflict. For those who follow the money, the pattern is clear. The arms dealers and private security firms are already circling. They always do.
This is not a prediction. It is an audit of a policy in motion. And the numbers do not lie.
