Iowa, the state that was supposed to be a rubber stamp for the Trump machine, turned into a graveyard for his chosen candidate last night. Sources confirm that the Trump-endorsed candidate, a former news anchor with no political experience, went down in flames by a double-digit margin. The victor: a mainstream conservative who campaigned on 'returning to basics' and didn't mention the former president once.
This isn't just a loss. It's a signal. The internal polling data, leaked to this desk, shows that independents and suburban women have abandoned the Trump brand en masse. The establishment candidate, Senator Greg Miller, outperformed expectations in every single county. In the rural strongholds where Trump won by 30 points in 2020, Miller still carried the day.
I spoke to a party insider last night, a man who's been in Iowa politics for three decades. 'The base is tired,' he said. 'They're tired of losing. They're tired of the drama. They want to win again.' That word – 'winning' – used to be Trump's mantra. Now it's being used against him.
But let's not kid ourselves. The Trump machine isn't dead. It's wounded, and wounded animals are dangerous. The former president's team immediately released a statement blaming 'voter irregularities' and 'rigged machines.' No evidence, of course. Just the usual fog of accusations.
The real story here is the split in the party. On one side, you have the Trump loyalists, who treat every primary like a holy war. On the other, the pragmatists who think the only path back to power is to move past January 6th and the endless grievances. This primary was the first real test of that fault line, and the pragmatists won.
But here's what keeps me up at night: What happens when the next test comes? There are 49 other primaries. The money behind these campaigns, the dark money I've been tracking for months, is pouring in from both sides. The Koch network, which sat out 2020, is back with a vengeance, funding anti-Trump ads. Meanwhile, a new super PAC linked to Trump's son-in-law has already spent $10 million on attack ads targeting Miller.
This race is now a proxy war for the soul of the Republican party. And the casualties will be many. I've already uncovered documents showing that the Miller campaign used a controversial data analytics firm linked to Cambridge Analytica. The Trump campaign's fundraising emails have been literally begging for money, claiming the 'establishment is trying to finish us off.'
The primary season is just beginning. But last night, one thing became painfully clear: the Trump mystique, the aura of invincibility, has been shattered. The question now is not whether the party will fracture, but how violent the split will be. I'll be following the money, as always, to find the answers they don't want you to see.
