The first big shock of the American primary season has landed. A Trump-backed candidate, expected to coast to victory in the Iowa caucuses, has been defeated. The result sends ripples through Westminster, where both parties are watching the US political realignment with intense interest.
For the Tories, the lesson is clear. Trump's brand of populism, once seen as a winning formula, may have lost its sheen. The candidate who lost was supposed to embody the 'America First' ethos that Boris Johnson once tried to emulate. Now, Labour MPs are quietly briefing that Keir Starmer's cautious approach might be vindicated.
The Iowa result is not just about one race. It's about the fragility of political movements built around a single figure. In Downing Street, there is nervousness. The Conservative Party has its own internal divisions, and the fear is that a similar backlash could hit at the next election.
But the real story is the realignment. The US political landscape is shifting. The traditional Republican coalition is fracturing. The Democratic coalition is also under strain. Britain, with its own political instability, is watching closely.
The defeat of a Trump-backed candidate is a sign that the pendulum may be swinging back. But to where? The centrist 'Never Trump' Republicans are still a fringe. The progressive wing of the Democrats is still fighting with the establishment. The only certainty is uncertainty.
In Whitehall, officials are already recalibrating. The special relationship relies on predictability. A Trump defeat in the primaries would be a nightmare for Boris Johnson. He has bet heavily on the Trump alliance. If Trump loses, Johnson looks like a man backing the wrong horse.
But it's not just the Tories. Labour has its own problems. Keir Starmer has been positioning himself as a moderate, but the left of the party is restless. If Bernie Sanders-style politics makes a comeback in the US, it could embolden the Corbynites.
The Iowa result is a warning shot. Politics is volatile. The old rules no longer apply. In Britain, we should take note. The next election could see similar upsets.
For now, the Westminster bubble is buzzing. The usual suspects are on the phone, offering their hot takes. But the truth is, no one knows what happens next. The US primary season is long. The British general election is still a year away. But the tremors from Iowa will be felt for months.
We will be watching closely. This is Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief, for the Guardian.
