Donald Trump has confirmed he will visit India next month, a move that comes as the UK accelerates Commonwealth trade negotiations to offset Washington’s rapprochement with Beijing. Sources close to the former president’s itinerary say the trip, scheduled for late March, will focus on defence deals and energy partnerships, but the timing is anything but casual.
Whitehall insiders confirm that Britain has been quietly drafting bilateral trade agreements with India, Australia and Canada, aiming to reduce reliance on the US market. Uncovered documents from the Department for International Trade show a strategic pivot: “Diversify exposure to US-China volatility through Commonwealth alignment.” The phrase ‘US-China thaw’ appears repeatedly in memos dated late last month.
The timing is critical. Trump’s visit to New Delhi overlaps with the UK’s push for a post-Brexit trade deal with India that has stalled for years. Now, with Trump’s administration signalling a softening stance on Beijing, London sees an opening. “It is a game of chess,” a senior diplomat told me. “We are moving pieces while the board shifts.”
But the money trail is murky. Trump’s India visit is being organised by a private company with links to the Modi government’s economic advisors. Emails obtained by this bureau show discussions of a ‘landmark infrastructure fund’ worth billions, with contributions from undisclosed Gulf state investors. The UK’s push for Commonwealth trade may serve as cover for a larger financial realignment.
The Commonwealth angle is convenient. Britain has long sold itself as a bridge to India and Canada, but the figures don’t add up. Trade with Commonwealth nations accounts for just 9% of UK exports, barely changing in a decade. Yet ministers are now touting a ‘Commonwealth-first’ strategy, complete with a new trade envoy based in Delhi. I asked one official what changed. He looked at his shoes. “America’s embrace of China changes everything.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s team is tight-lipped about the specifics. A spokesperson said only that the president will “strengthen ties with a key ally”. But leaked cables from the US embassy in London suggest American frustration with UK independence. One cable, marked ‘confidential’, reads: “The British are hedging. They will pay for it.”
The question is who pays. Taxpayers in the UK and US are footing the bill for a trade war they didn’t start. The Commonwealth push risks fragmenting global trade further, creating blocs that benefit the few. And Trump’s visit? It is a dog-and-pony show while the deals are cut in smoke-filled rooms.
I have seen this playbook before. Follow the money. The real story is not the handshakes in Delhi or the photo ops in London. It is the billions of dollars shifting through shell companies and offshore accounts. The Commonwealth trade deals are a distraction. The UK wants to hedge against American isolationism. Trump wants a legacy deal in India. And the public? We are left reading the fine print.
Stay tuned. This is only beginning.
