The White House is buzzing. Sources tell me the President is putting the final touches on what he calls his ‘final determination’ on the Iran nuclear deal. Insiders are tight-lipped, but the mood is grim. Allies are terrified. They see a path to nuclear escalation.
The deal, the JCPOA, is hanging by a thread. Trump has long called it the worst deal ever. His team is split. Hardliners want it dead. They argue it emboldens Tehran. Moderates warn of chaos. They say walking away isolates America, not Iran.
I’m hearing the determination could come as early as this week. It will be a binary choice: stay or go. But nothing with Trump is ever binary. There are always conditions, caveats, twists. Expect the unexpected.
The real fear is what comes next. European allies are scrambling. They have worked for months to salvage the deal. They offered side agreements, extra concessions. The French President made a personal plea. It may not be enough.
If Trump pulls out, Iran could restart its nuclear programme. Enrichment levels could spike. That is the nightmare scenario. A nuclear-armed Iran would trigger a regional arms race. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey would all want the bomb. It would unravel the global non-proliferation regime.
But there is another angle. This is also about domestic politics. Trump needs a win. Iran is a perfect foil. It plays to his base. It distracts from the Russia probe. It gives him a foreign policy victory without firing a shot. Yet the risks are enormous.
The Pentagon is uneasy. Military leaders know the cost of war. They have been quiet, but I have it on good authority they are advising caution. The State Department is a mess. Key posts are unfilled. Diplomacy is not their strong suit right now.
And then there is the intelligence community. They believe Iran is complying with the deal. That is the consensus. But Trump distrusts his own spies. He prefers the Israeli briefing. Bibi has been pushing hard for a strike. It is a dangerous game.
The clock is ticking. Every hour brings new leaks, new briefings. The lobby is electric. I am told the final document is being prepared. It will be a few pages. Will it be a withdrawal notice? A renegotiation demand? Or something else entirely?
Watch this space. The story is moving fast. I will have more when I get it. Right now, the only certainty is uncertainty. And in this town, that means the real fight has not even started yet.
