The numbers are in, and they don't lie. A new analysis of UK graduate earnings, leaked from the Department for Education's longitudinal database, confirms what many have suspected: a degree in economics or a STEM subject is your best bet for a fat paycheck. But the report also lays bare the brutal reality for arts and humanities graduates, who face a lifetime of playing catch-up.
Sources with access to the raw data say the median lifetime earnings for an economics graduate stand at £2.5 million, nearly double the £1.3 million for those with a degree in creative arts. Medicine and dentistry top the list at £3.2 million, but the real story is the dominance of economics and engineering, with the latter clocking in at £2.4 million.
"It's a tale of two labour markets," a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies told me, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The premium for STEM and economics is driven by demand in finance, tech, and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, arts graduates are competing for a shrinking pool of jobs in a sector that's been hollowed out by cuts."
The document, which I have obtained in full, runs to 47 pages and includes breakdowns by gender, region, and socioeconomic background. Unsurprisingly, it shows that even within high-earning fields, women still lag behind men. A female economics graduate earns 12 per cent less over her lifetime than her male counterpart, a gap that widens to 18 per cent in law.
But the most damning findings concern the so-called 'prestige gap'. Graduates of Oxbridge and Russell Group universities earn a significant premium over those from newer institutions, even with the same degree. A history graduate from Oxford can expect to earn £1.8 million, while a peer from a post-1992 university will struggle to reach £1 million.
"The system is rigged from the start," said a former Whitehall adviser now working in higher education policy. "We're selling students a dream of social mobility, but the data shows that your university's brand matters more than what you study. It's a scandal that the government has buried these figures for years."
The Department for Education declined to comment on the leaked document, but a spokesperson said they would be publishing an official version in due course. No doubt they'll sanitise it. But I've seen the raw numbers, and they paint a picture of a country where your choice at 18 determines your financial fate for the next 50 years.
The question is: what are we going to do about it? Or are we just going to keep telling kids to follow their dreams, while knowing full well that those dreams come with a price tag?
