The deal is done. Zimbabwe’s parliament just waved through a constitutional amendment that hands President Emmerson Mnangagwa near-absolute control over the judiciary and security forces. It’s a power grab straight out of the Mugabe playbook. And it’s got Whitehall seriously rattled.
Sources inside the Foreign Office tell me the UK is now “actively considering” a fresh round of targeted sanctions. Not just travel bans and asset freezes on Mnangagwa’s inner circle. This time, they’re looking at cutting off access to London’s financial markets for anyone linked to the regime. That would sting. Zimbabwe’s elite love their Knightsbridge shopping sprees and their kids’ school fees paid in sterling.
The bill, passed late last night in a chaotic session, removes term limits for the president and gives him the power to appoint senior judges without parliamentary scrutiny. Opposition MPs walked out. They called it “a constitutional coup.” They’re not wrong. Mnangagwa now controls the police, the army, and the courts. There’s no check left.
Why now? Mnangagwa is spooked. His grip on power has been slipping. The economy is in freefall. Inflation is above 500%. The gold-backed digital currency, the ZiG, is already a joke on the streets. And the opposition, despite being battered and fractured, still has a pulse. This move is about securing his legacy, or at least his survival, if the next election goes wrong.
But here’s the game inside the game. The UK’s sanctions threat is a double-edged sword. Starmer’s government is under pressure from Labour backbenchers to “get tough” on Zimbabwe. The Commonwealth summit is next year. No one wants a repeat of the Mugabe-era isolation. But the Treasury is nervous. Cutting off financial links could hurt British companies like Anglo American and Standard Chartered, which still have exposure to Zimbabwe’s mining sector. There’s a quiet lobby of City types whispering in ministers’ ears: “Don’t burn bridges. The lithium is too valuable.”
Meanwhile, the backbench rebellion is brewing. A group of 20 Labour MPs, led by the usual suspects from the Stop the War coalition, are drafting an amendment to the upcoming Sanctions Bill. They want a blanket ban on any UK-based financial services for Zimbabwean state entities. The whips are trying to contain it, but the mood is ugly. The left flank smells blood. They remember how Starmer dragged his feet on Russia sanctions in 2022. They won’t let him do the same here.
The real test will come next week. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is due to make a statement to the House. I’m told his draft is “robust” but includes a caveat about “proportionality.” That’s Whitehall code for “we’ll say the right things but do very little.” The hawks want a freeze on all Zimbabwean assets in the UK. The doves want quiet diplomacy. Lammy will try to split the difference. He always does.
But Mnangagwa knows this. He’s been around. He saw Mugabe survive 15 years of EU sanctions. The difference now is that the UK is acting solo. The EU is distracted by enlargement and the far right. The US is consumed by its own election. Zimbabwe’s president is betting that this too shall pass. He might be right.
One thing is certain: the optics are terrible. A former British colony, once the breadbasket of Africa, now sliding back into authoritarianism. And Britain, the former colonial master, reduced to threatening sanctions from the sidelines while Beijing pumps in cash. It’s a humbling picture.
I’ll leave you with this: watch the parliamentary vote on the Sanctions Bill. If 30 Labour MPs rebel, Starmer has a problem. If they break 50, the game changes. The lobby is buzzing. Everyone is waiting for the whip’s office to start twisting arms. They’ll be twisting all week.
