Something has cracked in the old special relationship. Analysis of Donald Trump’s recent social media output, leaked to this bureau, reveals a deliberate pivot in tone towards the UK. It is not subtle. It is a message.
The data, compiled by a team of data scientists working for an unnamed think tank, tracked every Trump post mentioning Britain for the past three months. The headline: a 40% increase in positive sentiment towards Prime Minister Starmer. But the devil, as always, is in the detail.
For context: Trump’s previous form on British leaders was a wrecking ball. He praised Boris Johnson, trashed Theresa May, and ignored Rishi Sunak. Now, he is name-checking Starmer in favourable terms. “Good man, Sir Keir. Tough on immigration. See?” read one post from last Tuesday. The team notes the deliberate use of ‘Sir’ – a recognition of establishment status Trump usually mocks.
What is driving this? Westminster whispers point to a single vector: the Trump campaign’s desperation for a post-Brexit trade deal. A Republican insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, told me the former president believes Starmer can deliver where Sunak failed. “He sees Starmer as a pragmatist. A dealmaker. Not a Europhile.”
But the shift carries risks for Starmer. The Labour leader has carefully avoided direct association with Trump. His allies point to the 2018 backlash when Trump praised Jeremy Corbyn. They are nervous. A senior Labour strategist put it bluntly: “We don’t want to be Trump’s British best friend. Not in Red Wall seats.”
Yet the data suggests something deeper. Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine has also softened. Three posts in the last week avoided his usual ‘give Putin a break’ line. Instead, he referenced “negotiated peace”. Translated into Whitehall, this is an olive branch to European allies. One Foreign Office source muttered: “He’s triangulating. Offering a deal to London to isolate Berlin.”
What does Number 10 make of it? Official line: no comment. But a Downing Street aide told me the analysis has been “noted with interest”. Translation: they are watching like hawks. The fear is that Trump’s warmth is a trap. If Starmer is seen as too close, it hands ammunition to the Tory benches. Already, I hear mutterings about “Yankee-poodle” from the 1922 Committee.
The real prize, however, is the trade deal. Trump’s team has made no secret of wanting a bilateral agreement before the 2024 election. Starmer’s office has been quietly sounding out business groups. The danger, as one Remainer MP put it, is “Trump will expect something in return. Extradition terms. Chlorinated chicken. We must not pay his price.”
But for now, the social media data is the only concrete evidence of a shift. The think tank’s director, a former No. 10 pollster, told me: “Trump is testing the waters. He’s using Twitter as a diplomatic backchannel. It is raw, unmediated, and terrifying for the diplomatic corps.”
The conclusion from the Lobby: watch the noise from Mar-a-Lago. It is not just noise. It is a signal. And Whitehall is only just tuning in.
