Mangrove forests, among the planet’s most carbon-rich ecosystems, are showing signs of recovery in several regions after decades of relentless destruction, with conservation experts pointing to a British-led management model as a key factor.
A study published today in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution examined 1,200 mangrove sites across 36 countries. It found that areas managed under a co-governance framework, where local communities share decision-making authority with government agencies and non-profit organisations, exhibited a 40 per cent reduction in deforestation rates compared to state-controlled or entirely privatised zones.
The co-governance model, pioneered in the UK’s overseas territories and adapted in countries including Indonesia, Bangladesh and Kenya, emphasises long-term concessions and community-led monitoring. The approach has attracted attention from international development banks and the UN Environment Programme, which is expected to endorse similar strategies at the upcoming COP summit.
‘What we are seeing is a correction, not a full recovery,’ said Dr. Margaret Henshaw, lead author of the study and a marine ecologist at the University of Cambridge. ‘But it demonstrates that institutional structures matter. When local people have a direct stake in the ecosystem’s survival, they become its most effective guardians.’
Mangroves are critical for coastal defence, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They store up to four times more carbon per hectare than tropical rainforests. Their loss has accelerated over the past three decades, driven by shrimp farming, palm oil plantations and urban expansion. In the 1990s, global mangrove cover was declining at an average rate of 2 per cent per year.
Today’s study shows that rate has fallen to below 0.3 per cent in areas under co-governance. In absolute terms, mangrove cover has stabilised or expanded in nearly 15 per cent of the studied sites. The gains are modest, equivalent to roughly 100 square kilometres of new or restored forest annually, but represent a meaningful reversal of a long-term trend.
‘The British model has been exported with varying degrees of success,’ noted Professor James Kirk, director of the Programme on Global Environmental Governance at the London School of Economics. ‘Its strength lies in its adaptability. It does not impose a blueprint but rather a set of principles: secure tenure, transparent revenue-sharing and conflict resolution mechanisms.’
Critics argue that the approach is labour-intensive and depends on stable political systems, which are often absent in the regions most affected by mangrove loss. Corruption, weak legal enforcement and land tenure disputes remain significant barriers. In Myanmar and Myanmar, for instance, co-managed sites have been overwhelmed by illegal shrimp farms backed by military-linked conglomerates.
Nevertheless, the study is likely to influence funding decisions. The Green Climate Fund, which has allocated over $10 billion to nature-based solutions, is reviewing its project criteria to incorporate co-governance as a condition for mangrove-focused grants. The British government, through its Blue Planet Fund, has already committed £500 million to ocean-related initiatives and is positioning itself as a leader in the field.
The findings come as the UK seeks to strengthen its diplomatic engagement with the Global South ahead of the next UN climate conference. Officials at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office have been briefed on the study and are expected to cite it in forthcoming trade negotiations.
While the recovery is far from complete, the data provides a rare example of measurable progress in the fight against ecosystem collapse. The work continues, but the evidence suggests that when institutional design aligns with local realities, restoration is possible.
