The head of MI6, Sir Richard Moore, made an unannounced visit to Havana last week, a development that underscores the escalating scramble for strategic influence as the global energy system teeters on the brink of collapse. Sources within Whitehall confirm that the director-general’s meeting with Cuban intelligence counterparts was driven by two imperatives: the urgent need to secure alternative energy supply chains, particularly for nickel and cobalt essential for battery storage; and the assessment of risks posed by a potential exodus of climate refugees from the Caribbean basin. The visit, which took place on 14 March, was kept from public records until now.
This is not a story about spies in the traditional sense. It is about the intersection of geology, climate physics, and geopolitics. Cuba sits atop some of the world’s largest untapped deposits of lateritic nickel, a critical material for the green energy transition. The island also controls deep-water ports that could become choke points in a world reshaped by sea-level rise. The MI6 chief’s itinerary included a tour of the Moa Bay mining region, a facility currently operating at 40 per cent capacity due to fuel shortages and ageing infrastructure.
The timing is no coincidence. Global nickel prices have surged 340 per cent since 2020, and demand is projected to outstrip supply by 2035. Meanwhile, the Caribbean is experiencing accelerating salinity intrusion into freshwater aquifers, with Cuba’s agricultural output falling by 18 per cent over the past decade. These are not separate problems. They are symptoms of the same planetary fever: an energy system that remains 85 per cent fossil-fuel dependent, even as we attempt to electrify everything.
Some will frame this as a return to Cold War-era intelligence games. It is not. The Soviet Union’s collapse left Cuba without a patron; today, the country is a data point in a far more complex equation. The UK’s interest is not ideological but thermodynamic. Every nation that can do so is now hedging against a future of energy scarcity and coastal inundation. The MI6 visit is one of at least twelve such diplomatic sorties by Western intelligence chiefs to resource-rich developing nations in the past six months.
The implications for ordinary citizens are direct. The cost of your next electric vehicle battery is tied to the political stability of places like Cuba. The price of your energy bill is linked to the speed at which we can build out battery storage for renewables. And the security of your borders will increasingly hinge on the carrying capacity of other nations. The MI6 visit is a signal that our institutions are now actively planning for a world where the pre-2020 norm was an anomaly.
Here is the physics: every tonne of nickel mined requires 500 tonnes of earth moved, 1 500 cubic metres of water, and roughly 15 megawatt-hours of energy. If that energy comes from diesel generators, we are simply trading one carbon debt for another. The only solution is to power mining operations with dedicated solar and wind farms, a technical challenge that requires capital, expertise, and a degree of geopolitical trust that is currently absent.
The UK’s intelligence community recognises that the energy transition is not a gradual curve but a cliff edge. There is no time for ivory tower theorising. The MI6 visit is a reconnaissance for the physical infrastructure of a post-carbon world. It is a recognition that the map of global power is being redrawn by the laws of thermodynamics, not by treaties or summits.
And this is where the ‘calm urgency’ becomes a call to action. The data is clear: global emissions must fall by 7.6 per cent annually for the next decade to meet the 1.5°C target. We are currently on track for a 3°C rise. The MI6 chief’s travel log is not a revelation. It is a confirmation that the machinery of state is already adapting to a hotter, more resource-constrained planet. The question remaining is whether our collective institutions can adapt fast enough to prevent the collapse of the very systems that sustain modern civilisation.
