In the contested landscape of Western Sahara, Rabat is executing a notable strategic pivot. The Moroccan government is actively promoting tourism to the disputed territory, framing it as an economic development initiative. However, intelligence assessments suggest this move is a multi-vector operation designed to consolidate de facto control while projecting a veneer of normalcy.
From a threat vector perspective, this is a classic example of 'soft power' being weaponised. By encouraging international visitors to Dakhla and Laayoune, Morocco aims to shift the narrative from a frozen conflict zone to a stable, investment-ready region. This is a direct counter to Polisario Front and Algerian influence operations. The timing is critical. With the recent normalisation deals under the Abraham Accords and growing international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty claims, including the US recognition under Trump, Rabat is now pushing for irreversible facts on the ground.
But the hardware tells a different story. Intelligence reports indicate a parallel build-up of military infrastructure. The Guerguerat buffer zone, scene of a flashpoint in 2020, remains heavily militarised. The Moroccan Royal Armed Forces have constructed a 270km security wall, equipped with advanced surveillance drones and electronic warfare assets. This suggests the tourism push is not a de-escalation measure but a strategic screen for force projection. Every hotel built is backed by a military logistics node.
Let us examine the intelligence failure risk. Western media outlets, often eager to report on 'peace dividends', risk becoming vector for Moroccan disinformation. The emphasis on sun-drenched beaches and windsurfing hides the reality of ongoing human rights abuses and second-class citizenship for Sahrawi populations. The UN MINURSO mission remains hamstrung, with its peacekeeping mandate degraded. The international community must decode this as a hostile state actor consolidating annexed territory by non-military means.
Logistically, the tourism initiative is running high-stakes. The region lacks basic water and power infrastructure for a large influx of visitors. Any incident, a terror attack or a protest, would be a strategic blow. Polisario and its backers will likely probe for weaknesses. A single sabotage event against a resort could crater the entire programme. This is a high-reward, high-risk move in a chess match with multiple opponents.
For policymakers, the takeaway is clear. This is not about tourism. It is about normalising an occupation. The UK and EU must calibrate their response. Do not approve visa waivers for Moroccan passports from Western Sahara. Do not recognise Moroccan sovereignty claims. And above all, treat this tourism push as an intelligence cue: watch the logistics, watch the military flanks, and watch the human terrain. The calm is the prelude to the storm.
