The strategic balance of Europe is shifting in a dangerous direction. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defense, has reignited the review of American troop deployments across Nato's eastern flank. This is not a bureaucratic procedural matter.
It is a signal. A signal that Washington is recalibrating its commitment to Article 5. For years, US force posture in Germany, Poland, and the Baltics has served as the bedrock of deterrence against Russian revanchism.
Hegseth's review threatens to undermine that deterrent at a time when the Kremlin is probing for weaknesses. The messaging is clear: America expects Europe to carry more of the load. But the real threat vector here is not just burden-sharing.
It is the window of vulnerability that a drawdown would create. Russian forces are reconstituting faster than anticipated. Their industrial base is on a war footing.
If US troops withdraw, even partially, the conventional balance tilts. The UK must now step up. Whitehall has been complacent, relying on the US security guarantee while hollowing out its own forces.
The Royal Navy is at its smallest since the Napoleonic era. The British Army is under 75,000, its armour degraded. This is not a time for austerity.
The UK must lead a European defence renaissance. That means increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP immediately. It means investing in heavy armour, air defence, and long-range fires.
It means building a credible land force that can deter a Russian incursion without US backup. The strategic pivot must be sharp. The intelligence community has been warning for months that Russia is preparing for a long war.
Hegseth's review is the final wake-up call. The UK cannot afford to miss this pivot. The cost of delay is measured in lost sovereignty and potential conflict.
