Jerusalem — Benjamin Netanyahu’s political standing has suffered a severe blow following confirmation that the United States and Iran are on the verge of finalising a nuclear agreement without Israeli involvement. The deal, which sources describe as a precursor to broader diplomatic and economic normalisation, has been negotiated exclusively between Washington and Tehran over the past six months.
For Netanyahu, who has built his political career on opposing any accommodation with the Iranian regime, the development represents an existential challenge. His government has long maintained that any deal failing to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and curb its regional proxy network would be a strategic defeat for Israel. The emerging agreement, which reportedly includes sanctions relief but only limited inspection protocols, appears to contradict those demands.
The Prime Minister’s office issued a terse statement condemning the talks as a “dangerous illusion” and warning that Israel would not be bound by any agreement it did not sign. But behind the rhetoric, there is a growing recognition within Israeli political circles that the United States has moved on. The Biden administration, preoccupied with strategic competition in Asia and the war in Ukraine, has concluded that a deal with Iran is preferable to continued confrontation.
Domestically, Netanyahu faces mounting criticism from across the political spectrum. Former defence chiefs and intelligence officials have publicly questioned his strategy, arguing that Israel’s insistence on total capitulation has left it isolated. The opposition has seized on the news, accusing the Prime Minister of mismanaging the country’s most critical security relationship.
The timing is particularly damaging. Netanyahu is already embroiled in a corruption trial and has seen his coalition fray over judicial reforms. A separate bill to limit the Supreme Court’s powers has paralysed the Knesset and triggered mass protests. The Iran deal, once finalised, will likely further erode his authority.
There are also regional implications. Gulf states, which had normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, are now recalibrating their positions. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has signalled interest in pursuing its own arrangement with Iran, mediated by China. This threatens to undo the diplomatic gains Netanyahu had touted as his signature achievement.
Israel’s military options remain constrained. A unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would risk a wider war and strain relations with Washington to breaking point. The intelligence community assesses that Iran’s enrichment capabilities are now too dispersed to be eliminated by air power alone. Meanwhile, Iran has warned that any attack would trigger a devastating response from its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
Netanyahu may attempt to rally international opposition to the deal, but his leverage is limited. European powers, initially sceptical of US-Iran talks, have now signalled they will support any agreement that includes robust verification measures. Even the UK, traditionally aligned with Israel, has been muted in its criticism.
The Prime Minister’s survival will depend on his ability to reframe the narrative. He could argue that the deal actually vindicates his hardline stance, forcing Iran to negotiate from a position of weakness. But with polls showing his Likud party trailing the centrist opposition, that argument is unlikely to resonate with an increasingly anxious electorate.
For now, the White House has confirmed that a signing ceremony is expected within weeks. Netanyahu, isolated and weakened, must decide whether to accept the deal as a reality or escalate a conflict he can no longer control. The coming days will determine not only his political future but the direction of the Middle East.
