The resumption of nuclear negotiations with Tehran has exposed deep fractures in Israel's political establishment. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, long the architect of a hardline stance against Iranian enrichment, now confronts a geopolitical reality that threatens to marginalise his influence both domestically and regionally.
The deal, which would lift sanctions in exchange for verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear programme, has reopened a power vacuum that Israel had helped fill through intelligence operations and covert actions. With the United States signalling a return to the 2015 framework, Netanyahu's strategy of unilateral military strikes appears increasingly untenable.
“This is a nightmare scenario for the prime minister,” said a senior Israeli defence official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He has built his entire legacy on preventing this exact outcome, and now he watches from the sidelines as the world engages with his arch-nemesis.”
Political analysts note that the deal's revival could accelerate the formation of a unity government without Likud, as centrist and left-wing parties coalesce around a policy of diplomatic engagement. Netanyahu’s coalition partners, already fraying over budget disputes, may see this as a tipping point.
For the broader Middle East, the implications are profound. Gulf states, which normalised relations with Israel partly in response to Iranian aggression, now hedge their bets by reopening channels with Tehran. Meanwhile, proxies from Lebanon to Yemen recalibrate their capabilities, anticipating a windfall of frozen Iranian assets.
The White House has attempted to reassure allies, but the speed of negotiations has left many in Jerusalem feeling blindsided. As one former Mossad official put it: “We are not just losing a bargaining chip. We are losing our status as the sheriff of the Middle East.”
Domestically, Netanyahu faces the wrath of security hawks within his own party, while opponents accuse him of leaving the country diplomatically isolated. The coming weeks will test whether his political survival instincts can outmanoeuvre a shifting global order.
