The head of Next, Simon Wolfson, has broken cover. He is warning of a “dramatic” collapse in entry-level jobs. This is not a whisper. It is a siren.
Wolfson, a Conservative peer, knows the high street. He knows the economy. When he speaks, ministers listen. Usually. This time, they might not like what they hear.
The retail giant’s boss says the government’s policies are crushing the first rung of the career ladder. National Insurance rises. The minimum wage hike. Employment rights reforms. A triple whammy.
Let’s be clear. This is not about boardroom bonuses. This is about the 16-year-old who cannot get a Saturday job. The school leaver with no CV. The graduate drowning in debt with no offer.
Wolfson’s intervention is timed. It comes as Labour’s approval ratings on the economy start to fray. The PM is fighting to own the “growth” narrative. This hurts.
Downing Street will not like the language. “Dramatic collapse” is not what they want in the morning papers. But Wolfson has the numbers. Next employs 45,000 people in the UK. They track every hire.
What is happening? Simple. Employers are hedging. They are automating. They are hiring fewer juniors because the cost of taking a chance has become too high. The risk premium has spiked.
The Treasury briefing is predictable. “We are fixing the foundations.” “Long-termism.” But try telling that to the teenager who has applied for 30 jobs and heard nothing.
Wolfson is not alone. Other CEOs are muttering. But he is the first to go public. Expect others to follow. The CBI is nervous. The FSB is apoplectic.
Politically, this is a live grenade. The Labour right is worried about the “business lobby” narrative. The left is worried about young people. Neither side has a clean answer.
The numbers back Wolfson. ONS data shows vacancies falling. Youth unemployment ticking up. The OBR forecasts are gloomy. The Chancellor is boxed in.
What does Wolfson want? A rethink. A pause. A signal that government understands the cumulative burden. He won’t get it. Not yet.
But this is a story that will run. Every time a young person fails to find a start, the soundbite echoes. Next boss spoke truth to power. Who is listening?
The Lobby is buzzing. This is not a routine business complaint. This is a political event. Watch the shadows. The arithmetic is shifting.
