It was a Tuesday afternoon like any other at the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey. Passengers queued for check-in, families bid farewell, and vendors sold peanuts and water bottles. Then the gunfire started. The attack, which left 35 dead and scores wounded, was over in minutes. But its repercussions will echo far longer.
This is not just another grim statistic from the Sahel. This is a warning shot, one that British intelligence analysts are taking very seriously. The attack's sophistication suggests a level of planning and resource that points to groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) or al-Qaeda affiliated militants. And for the first time, the threat is no longer confined to dusty battlefields and remote villages. It has struck a major transport hub, a gateway to the wider world.
The Sahel region, a vast stretch of land south of the Sahara, has been a crucible of instability for years. But recent shifts in global jihadist strategy, coupled with the withdrawal of French forces from Mali, have created a vacuum. Now, groups are seeking to project power beyond their traditional strongholds. The airport attack is a chilling demonstration of that ambition.
For the people of Niamey, life has become a series of checkpoints and curfews. But for London's intelligence community, the concern is more profound. The Sahel's proximity to Europe, its porous borders, and its history of radicalisation mean that what starts in Niger does not stay in Niger. The Manchester Arena bombing, the Bataclan massacre: these horrors were not born in isolation. They were fuelled by networks that stretch across continents.
The human cost of this attack is immediate and terrible. Thirty five families are mourning. But the cultural shift, the gnawing unease that comes with knowing the threat is closer than we thought: that is what will linger. British tourists may think twice about layovers in West Africa. Business travellers will seek alternative routes. And in the corridors of Whitehall, officials are reassessing risk assessments they hoped they would never need to update.
The question is no longer whether the Sahel insurgency will carry into Europe, but when. And how prepared we are to meet it.
