The hangman’s noose has tightened on four men in Nigeria, convicted for the 2022 massacre at St. Francis Catholic Church in Owo, Ondo State. The execution, carried out in the dead of night, was swiftly endorsed by the Foreign Office in London. But as a financial analyst who has watched Nigeria’s bond yields spike and capital flee, I see a different transaction: a government buying time with a blood price, while the fundamental account of security remains deeply in the red.
The attack itself was a grisly affair: gunmen stormed the church during Pentecost mass, killing 40 worshippers. The Nigerian authorities arrested dozens, but only four faced the ultimate penalty. The trial was opaque, the appeals swift, and the execution almost too convenient. For the UK to ‘back the judicial process’ is to ignore the market signal: when justice is theatrical, investors price in higher risk premiums. Nigeria’s sovereign debt currently yields over 10 per cent. That is not a vote of confidence. That is the currency of desperation.
Let me be clear about the bottom line. The Owo massacre was not just a tragedy. It was a liability. Every such event erodes the state’s monopoly on violence, the bedrock of any functioning economy. Multinationals eyeing Nigerian assets pencil in a discount for insecurity. The naira has lost half its value against the dollar in three years. Capital flight is not a metaphor; it is a balance of payments crisis unfolding in real time. The government’s response to a church massacre should be to restore confidence, not to expedite executions.
Hanging four men does not correct the underlying fiscal pathology. Nigeria spends roughly 25 per cent of its budget on debt service, while security expenditure gobbles up another 12 per cent. Education and health are starved. The government is essentially running a Ponzi scheme on safety: using borrowed money to pay for show trials, while the insurgency in the north and banditry in the west continue unabated. The UK’s support for this ‘judicial process’ is akin to a central bank buying its own bonds: a short-term fix that masks long-term insolvency.
I have sat through too many IMF briefings and too many gilt auctions to believe in quick fixes. The Nigerian authorities should focus on building institutions that work. That means transparent courts, accountable police, and a tax system that actually collects revenue. The alternative is a spiral: more insecurity, more capital flight, more desperate measures. The hangman’s rope is not a policy tool. It is a sign of failure.
In the City, we have a saying: liquidity covers a multitude of sins. But Nigeria is running on fumes. The government has resorted to printing money through the central bank, which is fuelling inflation at 33 per cent. Savers are being wiped out. Real interest rates are negative. The execution of four men is a distraction. The real story is the collapse of fiscal discipline and the erosion of public trust. The UK should be demanding structural reforms, not giving a pat on the back for a flawed trial.
The Owo massacre should have been a turning point. Instead, it has become another line item in the ledger of state failure. Until Nigeria addresses the underlying economic rot, the security crisis will only deepen. And the hangman will get plenty more work.
