Downing Street is quietly studying a Dutch experiment that claims to have all but eliminated youth unemployment. Sources confirm that officials have held multiple briefings on the so-called ‘no dead ends’ approach, a system that funnels school leavers into apprenticeships, vocational training or work, with no option to fall through the cracks.
Uncovered documents show that the policy, pioneered in the Netherlands after the 2008 financial crisis, relies on a simple but ruthless principle: every young person is tracked. If they are not in education, employment or training, a caseworker is assigned. Benefits are tied to participation. There is no waiting list for help. The state does not walk away.
The results are stark. Dutch youth unemployment currently sits at around 8 per cent. In Britain, it is nearly double that, at 14 per cent. Among 16 to 24 year olds not in education or training, the gap is even wider. The Dutch model has been described by one Whitehall insider as “the nearest thing to a silver bullet for the NEET problem you’ll find in Europe”.
But the price is high. The system costs roughly £4,500 per young person per year, according to an internal Treasury analysis seen by this newspaper. That is nearly three times what the UK currently spends on youth employment support. And it requires a degree of state intervention that will make libertarians choke on their cornflakes.
The apprenticeship levy would need to be overhauled. Local authorities would have to take on new legal duties. Employers would be compelled to offer placements or face penalties. The Dutch have no compunction about using the stick. Their municipalities can fine companies that refuse to take on trainees. They can withdraw benefits from young people who skip appointments. The message is clear: you will work, or you will be made to work.
Critics call it coercion. Supporters call it the only honest answer to a generation left on the shelf. The UK has spent billions on youth programmes over the past two decades, from the New Deal to the Youth Contract to the Kickstart scheme. None have delivered a lasting reduction in the numbers. The Dutch have done it by accepting that the market will not fix this on its own.
One source close to the Number 10 policy unit told me: “They have no dead ends. Every route leads somewhere. Either you’re in training, you’re in work, or you’re in a programme that gets you there. There is no gap where you can just disappear. That is what we need to replicate.”
But replicating it will require money that the Treasury is reluctant to release. And it will require a political consensus that does not currently exist. The Dutch system is underpinned by a social partnership between government, unions and employers that has been decades in the making. Britain has no such tradition. Our model is built on a low-regulation, hire-and-fire labour market that has created a boom in zero-hours contracts and gig work, precisely the kind of precarious employment that the Dutch system was designed to eliminate.
The question is whether Whitehall is serious or just shopping for headlines. The Prime Minister’s spokesperson confirmed that “a range of international models” are being examined ahead of the upcoming white paper on employment. But no decisions have been made. No funding has been allocated. No legislation is in the pipeline.
What is clear is that the ‘no dead ends’ model is not a tweak. It is a wholesale restructuring of the relationship between the state, the young person and the employer. It requires a degree of planning, investment and political will that British governments have historically shied away from. The Dutch did it because their economy was broken and they had no choice. Britain is not there yet. But with youth unemployment rising and the cost of doing nothing climbing by the day, it may not have a choice for much longer.
A former minister who helped draw up the original New Deal told me: “We’ve been trying for 30 years. We’ve thrown money at it. We’ve thrown schemes at it. Nothing has worked. Maybe it’s time to admit that the Dutch are right. You can’t have a free market in young people’s futures.”
That is a sentiment you will not hear from the podium at Downing Street. But in the corridors, where the real work is done, the conversation is shifting. The dead ends are closing. The question is whether Britain is ready to follow.
