The attack on a Moscow oil refinery this week has shattered the illusion of distance between this country and the frontlines of Ukraine. For many here, war was something that happened on a screen. Now, with Russia's own infrastructure ablaze, the British government is quietly dusting off civil defence plans that have lain dormant since the Cold War.
I spoke to a former civil servant who helped draft the original应急预案. He told me: "We always knew the day might come when the public would need to know where the nearest fallout shelter is. But we never imagined it would be because of a conflict we're already funding."
The attack, reportedly carried out by Ukrainian drones, marks a significant escalation in a war that has already cost thousands of lives. For the Kremlin, it brings the conflict closer to ordinary Russians. But for working people here, it raises uncomfortable questions about what happens if the fighting spills over Nato's borders.
Already, whispers of a "home front" mobilisation are circulating in Whitehall. The Ministry of Defence is reviewing its Resilience and Emergency Preparedness plans. Local councils are being asked to update lists of public buildings that could serve as emergency shelters. And there are murmurs of a new public information campaign, reminiscent of the "Protect and Survive" leaflets of the 1980s.
But at what cost? The Treasury is already stretching to fund weapons shipments to Ukraine. The cost of living crisis has not abated. A worker in Sheffield told me: "They're spending billions on missiles, and I can't afford to heat my home. Now they want to spend more on bunkers?" That sentiment will resonate across the red wall seats that the government cannot afford to lose.
The unions are watching. This week, the TUC issued a statement urging the government to prioritise social protection over military spending. They argue that a truly resilient society is one where people have secure jobs, affordable housing, and a health service they can rely on. Not concrete shelters and sirens.
Yet the threat is real. The Moscow attack shows that no target is off limits. And if Russia chooses to retaliate asymmetrically – perhaps through cyber attacks or by targeting our own energy infrastructure – the government will be judged on how prepared it is.
For now, the official line is calm. A Downing Street spokesperson said: "The UK is not at war with Russia. We are supporting Ukraine's right to self-defence. Our robust civil defence arrangements are kept under constant review."
But behind the scenes, the machinery of war is quietly turning closer to home. And for those of us who remember the miners' strikes, the poll tax riots, and the hollowing out of our industrial heartlands, the prospect of a bunker mentality is a worrying one. The government must be transparent about its plans. Hushed meetings and leaked memos will only fuel distrust.
The bottom line is this: the cost of this war is rising for everyone. And if the government wants to ask the British people to prepare for the worst, it must first prove it can deliver the basics: a living wage, secure jobs, and a safety net that doesn't have holes. Without that, no amount of civil defence planning will protect us from the anger that will follow.
