The Foreign Office is seething tonight. A midnight statement, released after emergency talks between the PM and his top brass, condemns Pakistani airstrikes that tore through a village in Khost province. Twenty-eight dead, mostly women and children. Whitehall sources tell me the language was deliberately sharp. “Deliberately targeted civilians,” one official hissed. This is not a routine diplomatic slap.
The timing is brutal. It comes as the government tries to salvage its Afghan resettlement scheme, already buckling under pressure from Tory backbenchers. Labour is circling. Starmer’s team has already tabled an urgent question. Expect fireworks in the Commons tomorrow.
But the real game is at the UN. The UK is pushing for an emergency Security Council session. The problem? Russia holds the rotating presidency. One diplomat described the mood in the UN mission as “bleak.” Russia is unlikely to back a resolution that embarrasses Islamabad, a key partner in their Eurasian pivot. The US is non-committal, distracted by its own domestic meltdown.
Behind the scenes, the PM’s team is nervous. The last time Britain led on a UN resolution, it was over Ukraine. That was a clean fight. This one pits ally against ally. Pakistan is a major Commonwealth partner, vital for intelligence sharing on Afghanistan. But the images from Khost are impossible to spin.
I’m told the Defence Secretary is livid. He wanted a joint military statement with NATO allies. He was overruled. The PM’s focus is on the humanitarian dimension. But the real pressure is domestic. The backbench 1922 Committee is buzzing. Some Tory MPs, particularly those with strong Pakistan diaspora links, are urging restraint. Others, from the defence select committee, want sanctions.
What happens next? The UN vote is scheduled for Thursday. Between now and then, expect frantic phone calls. The PM will speak to Prime Minister Sharif tonight. The message will be blunt: de-escalate or lose British support on IMF loans. That is the lever. But is it enough? One former ambassador told me, “Pakistan knows we need them more than they need us on Afghanistan.”
The mood in the Lobby is grim. This could be a defining moment for the government’s foreign policy credibility. If the UN fails, expect a backbench rebellion. The PM’s majority is thin. He cannot afford a revolt from his own side on a moral issue.
The 28 dead will not be forgotten. But in the game of geopolitics, they are a bargaining chip. And right now, the UK is playing a weak hand.
