The death toll from Pakistan’s cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan has risen to 28, all civilians. The bombs fell on Paktika province. Women and children among the dead. This is a diplomatic earthquake.
Westminster sources tell me the Foreign Office is scrambling. Quiet words have been passed to Islamabad. But the real concern is the domino effect. A destabilised Afghanistan means more refugees. It means a stronger haven for terrorist groups. It means the Taliban in Kabul loses what little control it has.
Downing Street’s position is clear: this cannot escalate. But what leverage does the UK actually have? Our aid budget has been slashed. That is the dirty secret. The Treasury sees the £300 million pledge to Afghanistan as a target for cuts. The Foreign Office sees it as the only thing preventing total collapse.
One senior minister described the situation to me as a high-wire act. ‘We need Pakistan to behave. But we need the Taliban to cooperate. And we need to pay for both. Good luck with that.’
Labour is circling. David Lammy is already demanding a Commons statement. He will use it to attack the government’s foreign policy coherence. Or lack thereof.
The real question is whether the Prime Minister can afford to increase aid. Can he afford not to? The next few weeks will be telling.
Backbench Conservatives are uneasy. They see the aid budget as a vote loser. But the military establishment warns that cutting it further will cost lives. And votes.
Pakistan’s actions have put Starmer in an impossible position. Express outrage and lose influence in Islamabad. Say nothing and lose moral authority.
My sources say the preferred option is a private dressing-down. But if the strikes continue, public condemnation will be unavoidable.
The bottom line: British aid is not charity. It is a strategic imperative. Without it, the region burns.
And we all pay the price.
