The British government has issued a travel advisory for Paris following violent riots that erupted after the Champions League final, resulting in hundreds of arrests. For the City of London, this is yet another reminder of the eurosceptic’s axiom: continental Europe’s structural fragility is a risk to capital, not an adventure. The market’s reaction was muted, with the FTSE 100 dipping 0.
2% on Monday, but the real concern lies in the insurance and travel sectors. Shares in旅行社巨头 TUI fell 1.5% as investors priced in potential claims and cancellations.
The riots, sparked by a controversial goal in the match between Real Madrid and Liverpool, saw French police use tear gas and water cannons on fans. The UK Foreign Office now advises against all but essential travel to the affected areas, a move that will inevitably dent consumer confidence and hit the already struggling hospitality industry in Paris. Bond markets remain jittery, with French OAT yields edging up 3 basis points, reflecting the political turmoil.
This incident highlights the 'volatility premium' that investors demand for holding European assets, a premium that has been shrinking since Macron’s election but could expand once more. The bottom line: capital is a coward, and scenes of police batons will send it fleeing to the relative safety of UK gilts.
