The counting of votes in Peru’s presidential election dragged into the early hours this morning, with the two leading candidates separated by a razor-thin margin. For British investors watching from across the Atlantic, the outcome carries heavy economic weight. But for the working people of Lima and the highlands, this is about the price of corn, the strength of their unions, and whether the next government will fill their plates or empty them.
The left-wing teacher Pedro Castillo, who rattled markets by vowing to nationalise key industries, has seen his unexpected lead shrink as ballots from the more conservative capital, Lima, come in. His rival, Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a former autocrat, has the backing of business elites but faces deep distrust among the poor who remember her father’s brutal regime. With more than 95 percent of votes counted, the difference is fewer than 100,000 votes. A recount is almost certain.
For British investors, the stakes are clear. Peru is the world’s second-largest copper producer, and its mines are heavily foreign-owned. Castillo has threatened to tear up contracts and redistribute wealth to the Andean communities that have seen little of the mining boom. That spooked London-listed mining giants, whose shares wobbled this week. But the real story is not in the boardrooms. It is in the dusty streets of the shantytowns and the union halls of the silver mines.
I spoke to Maria Huamán, a teacher in the Cajamarca region, who sold her chicken to pay for the bus fare to the polling station. “We have been forgotten,” she told me, her voice cracking. “They dig up our mountains, they take our water, and we are left with nothing. This time, we want a president who remembers us.” Her vote for Castillo was not an endorsement of his vague economic plans. It was a protest against decades of inequality.
The uncertainty is now the enemy. A prolonged recount could push the country into political chaos, reminiscent of past crises that saw six presidents in five years. For British exporters, from Scotch whisky to financial services, instability is a poison. The next government will have to navigate a pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 Peruvians, an economy that shrank by 11 percent last year, and a population that is hungry for change.
But change comes in many forms. Fujimori, if she wins, will face the same streets that have erupted in protests against her father’s legacy. Castillo, if he triumphs, will have to convince markets he is not the radical they fear. Either way, the real test will be in the kitchen tables of the people. The price of a loaf of bread in Lima has doubled in the last year. That is the metric that matters.
As the final votes are tallied, I think of the miners in the highlands who voted with their faces masked against the virus, their hands calloused from hauling rock. They are watching the television in the union hall, waiting for a sign. Not for the FTSE 100, but for a chance at dignity. That is what this election is about. And that is why the world should care.
