In a seismic political shift that analysts are already comparing to the 2016 US election, Colombia has elected a political outsider with direct ties to former President Donald Trump. The victor, Rodolfo Hernández, a 77-year-old construction magnate and former mayor of Bucaramanga, defeated leftist Gustavo Petro in a tightly contested runoff. The result underscores a growing global trend of anti-establishment sentiment, but for Colombia the stakes are uniquely high: a nation grappling with deforestation in the Amazon, a fragile peace process, and a carbon-intensive economy now faces an uncertain environmental trajectory.
Hernández’s platform, while light on specifics, has signalled a sharp departure from the climate commitments of his predecessor Iván Duque. During the campaign, he questioned the scientific consensus on anthropogenic warming and promised to prioritise economic growth over environmental regulations. This stance aligns with Trump’s own deregulatory agenda. For a country that hosts the Amazon rainforest’s northwestern edge, a region losing 200,000 hectares annually to cattle ranching and illicit crops, such rhetoric is alarming.
Climate scientists point to a physical reality: the Amazon is a net carbon sink that, if degraded, could accelerate global heating. Colombia is the second most biodiverse country on Earth, and its ecosystems are already stressed. The new president’s allies have signalled they will relax land-use restrictions and fast-track oil and mining permits. Given that Colombia is Latin America’s third largest oil producer, with crude accounting for a third of exports, the policy shift could have measurable consequences for global emissions.
Yet the election cannot be viewed in isolation. The Colombian electorate, weary of corruption and stagnant wages, voted for change. Hernández’s campaign tapped into a deep frustration with the political elite. His promise to cut taxes and reduce bureaucracy resonated in rural areas where the state has historically failed to deliver services. But these same communities are often on the frontline of climate impacts: floods, landslides, and droughts linked to the El Niño cycle are intensifying.
There is a technical dimension to this story. Colombia’s energy grid is already 70% hydropower, making it vulnerable to droughts. The new administration’s preference for fossil fuels could lock in carbon-intensive infrastructure for decades. Analysts at the International Energy Agency calculate that a 10% increase in oil extraction here adds roughly 15 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually, assuming current refining processes.
The diplomatic fallout is immediate. The Biden administration has made climate cooperation a pillar of its Latin America policy. A Colombia that retreats from the Paris Agreement or weakens its nationally determined contributions could strain relations. Conversely, Chinese investors, already active in Colombian coal and oil, stand to benefit.
As a science correspondent, I must stress the physical urgency. The biosphere does not care about election cycles. The pace of Amazon deforestation is already approaching a tipping point where the rainforest shifts from carbon sink to source. Hernández’s victory may accelerate that timeline. The data are clear: we have perhaps a decade to halve emissions. Political decisions made in Bogotá over the next four years will echo in the atmosphere.
Yet there is room for nuance. Colombian presidents operate within institutional constraints. The Constitutional Court has upheld environmental protections, and local communities have won legal challenges against mining projects. The new president’s radicalism may be tempered by governance realities. Still, the signals are concerning. For a journalist who has spent years tracking the gap between political promises and physical outcomes, this election is a stark reminder that climate action is never guaranteed.
