The Kremlin’s resolve on Ukraine appears unshaken. Vladimir Putin, in a televised address this morning, reiterated his maximalist demands: recognition of annexed territories, demilitarisation, and a guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO. There was no hint of compromise, no nod to the mounting costs of a war now in its third year. But beneath the granite facade, the ground is shifting.
For months, state-controlled media have stuck rigidly to the script: the “special military operation” is a righteous struggle against Western aggression. Yet a quiet change is detectable. Journalists and analysts inside Russia report that the Kremlin has begun to allow slightly more nuance. Casualty figures, once taboo, are now occasionally mentioned. The word “war” itself, long banned from official discourse, has crept back into use by some politicians. And there are rumblings of economic strain.
Russia’s economy, propped up by oil and gas revenues and military spending, is showing signs of fatigue. Inflation, driven by sanctions and a weakened rouble, is eating into household incomes. The price of bread, cooking oil and basic goods has risen sharply. For working families in provincial towns, the cost of living is becoming a daily struggle. The war, presented as a distant fight, is now felt at the kitchen table.
Regional inequality is also widening. Moscow and St Petersburg remain relatively insulated, but in the industrial heartlands and rural areas, the pinch is sharper. Recruitment into the armed forces, once buoyed by patriotism and financial incentives, has slowed. Reluctance to fight is being reported by local officials, though not in the state press.
There have been small but notable protests. Wives of reservists have taken to the streets in several cities, demanding the return of their husbands from the front. These are not anti-war demonstrations per se, but they represent a chink in the armour of public consensus. The Kremlin has responded cautiously: banning large gatherings but not cracking down with full force.
What does this mean for the war’s trajectory? Not an immediate reversal. Putin retains a tight grip on the security apparatus and the media. But if the economic pain deepens and the human cost becomes harder to hide, the space for public dissent may widen. For now, the Russian leader remains uncompromising. The question is whether that stance can survive the slow, corrosive change in what people are prepared to say out loud.
For Western policymakers, this is a slender but real opening. The challenge is to calibrate pressure – sanctions, support for Ukraine – in a way that deepens Russia’s internal strains without triggering a nationalist backlash. It is a delicate balance, and the stakes could not be higher.
