Vladimir Putin has departed Beijing without securing a single new energy agreement, a diplomatic vacuum rapidly filled by British-led initiatives that underscore the Kremlin’s declining influence in global fossil fuel markets. The Russian president’s visit, intended to finalise deals for expanded gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, collapsed amid Chinese demands for price discounts and payment guarantees that Moscow could not meet. Meanwhile, Whitehall’s quiet coordination with Asian buyers and Gulf producers has redirected critical supply chains, effectively isolating Russia from the world’s largest energy consumer.
Behind the scenes, British energy diplomacy has been relentless. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Foreign Office and Department for Energy Security have prioritised severing Russia’s economic lifelines. This week’s outcome in Beijing is the clearest signal yet that those efforts are succeeding. Rather than relying on new Siberian pipelines, China has accelerated its pivot to liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, Australia, and the United States. British firms have facilitated this transition through technical partnerships and financing guarantees for LNG terminals in Guangdong and Zhejiang. The result: China’s imports of Russian natural gas fell by 8 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, even as total imports rose.
Putin’s failure is not solely about price. It reflects a structural shift in the global energy order. Russia’s fossil fuel model is built on long-term contracts and rigid pipelines, while the future belongs to flexible LNG markets that can respond to geopolitical shocks. The United Kingdom, with its LNG trading hub in London and expertise in decarbonisation, is ideally positioned to prosper in this environment. British energy secretary Claire O’Neill confirmed that a new trilateral agreement with Japan and South Korea will accelerate the development of floating LNG terminals in the Pacific, further reducing dependence on Russian gas.
The environmental implications are profound. Every molecule of Russian gas that goes unbought is a step towards the collapse of the fossil fuel economy. Yet the transition must be managed. If replacing Russian gas is simply swapping one carbon-based supplier for another, the climatic benefit is marginal. The real prize is leveraging this geopolitical rupture to accelerate the deployment of renewables and storage. Britain has already committed £30 billion to domestic offshore wind, and is negotiating with Norway to build a subsea hydrogen pipeline that could provide baseload clean energy to Germany by 2030.
But the urgency cannot be overstated. We are witnessing a race against the clock. The Earth’s energy imbalance is now equivalent to detonating four Hiroshima bombs per second. Every political failure to curb emissions compounds the physical reality. The British government must extend its diplomatic offensive beyond fossil fuels. China is building new coal plants at a rate of two per week. Without binding agreements to phase out coal, Putin’s empty-handed return will be a hollow victory. Russia will simply redirect its unsold gas to other markets or flare it, adding to atmospheric methane concentrations. Britain must ensure that the energy diplomacy tools developed to outflank Russia are also used to force a just transition away from all hydrocarbons.
For now, the immediate takeaway is clear. Putin’s visit was meant to project strength. It instead revealed weakness. The Kremlin cannot force China to accept its terms. And as Britain continues to build alliances across Asia and the Middle East, Russia’s position as an energy superpower is eroding. The question is whether this diplomatic victory can be translated into climate wins. The next moves will define the sustainability of our civilisation.
