The Kremlin’s latest attempt to secure a strategic energy lifeline has ended in failure. Vladimir Putin departed Beijing this morning without the signed agreement for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a project Moscow had hoped would replace dwindling European gas sales. Chinese President Xi Jinping declined to commit, citing unresolved pricing disputes and Beijing’s shifting energy priorities.
The pipeline, designed to carry 50 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Siberia’s Yamal fields to China, was meant to lock in a long term partnership. But China’s slowing economy and its rapid build out of renewables and domestic gas production have reduced its appetite for expensive Russian imports. “China is no longer desperate for Siberian gas,” said Dr. Li Wei, an energy analyst at the Beijing Institute for International Studies. “They have leverage now and they are using it.”
From a climate perspective, this standoff is a double edged blessing. A fully operational Power of Siberia 2 would have locked in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades, undermining global emissions targets. The International Energy Agency has made clear that no new oil and gas fields can be developed if the world is to reach net zero by 2050. China, the world’s largest coal consumer, pledged at COP28 to peak emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Signing a major new gas deal would contradict those commitments.
Yet the failure does not mean the project is dead. Russia may return with more favourable terms. Putin’s humiliation in Beijing underscores his country’s growing isolation and economic desperation. European markets closed after the Ukraine invasion, and China remains Russia’s only viable major customer for its gas. But Xi is playing a longer game. He knows that time is on China’s side as its energy transition accelerates.
The message from Beijing is clear: China will not be leveraged into fossil fuel dependency. For the rest of the world, this is a rare moment of hope. The collapse of this deal may signal that even petrostates can no longer depend on easy expansion into Asian markets. The energy transition is creating realpolitik.
As a science correspondent, I must emphasise the physical reality: the planet’s carbon budget is nearly exhausted. Every tonne of CO2 from new pipelines pushes us closer to irreversible climate tipping points. The collapse of Power of Siberia 2 is not just a diplomatic setback for Moscow. It is a small but significant reprieve for our collective future.
