The Kremlin has slammed the door on peace talks. Vladimir Putin declared on Friday there is ‘no point’ meeting Volodymyr Zelensky, a statement that landed simultaneously with a blunt British intelligence assessment. The assessment warns of a major new Russian offensive in the coming weeks.
The snub from Putin was characteristically icy. He told state TV that Zelensky is ‘illegitimate’ because his presidential term expired in May 2024. Martial law, imposed after the invasion, suspended elections. That is a technicality, but a potent one in the Kremlin’s narrative machine.
Whitehall sources are describing the intelligence warning as ‘sobering’. It paints a picture of a Russian military rebuilt, not broken. Conscripts are being trained. Shell production has ramped up. The grinding war of attrition is about to shift gears.
The timing is deliberate. Both messages landed on a Friday afternoon. The news cycle is quieter. The political world is winding down. That is when you drop a grenade.
What is the game here? Putin’s refusal is not just rhetoric. It is a signal to Kyiv, and to Washington. He believes he can wait this out. He believes Western support for Ukraine will fracture. The US election is looming. A new European Commission is forming. He is betting on fatigue.
But the British assessment counters that. It says Russia’s window for a decisive breakthrough is narrow. Their armour is depleted. Their officer corps is hollowed out. A new offensive might grab territory. It might not break the line.
The reaction from Number 10 was muted but firm. A spokesperson reiterated that ‘Ukraine’s right to self-defence is non-negotiable’. The Foreign Office is already planning more sanctions. Another package is being drafted.
Inside the Westminster village, the mood is grim but resolute. There is no appetite for a peace deal that rewards aggression. The problem is that the public is drifting. Polling shows a slight uptick in those favouring a negotiated end, even if it means concessions.
That is the kernel of political danger for Starmer. If the offensive succeeds, if Kyiv buckles, the pressure to ‘end the bloodshed’ will spike. The left of his party is uneasy. Some backbenchers are already muttering about ‘endless war’.
For now, the line holds. But in politics, as in war, the front can collapse faster than anyone expects.
Putin’s calculation is brutal but coherent. He does not need to win the war. He just needs the West to lose the will to fight it.
The new offensive will test that will very soon.
