The world is on track for another year of unprecedented heat, with global average temperatures expected to surpass previous records within the next five years, according to a new analysis from the Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation. The forecast, released today, warns that there is a 66 per cent chance that at least one year between now and 2027 will exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels. This would mark the first time humanity has breached the limit set by the Paris Agreement, albeit temporarily.
For Britain, the implications are stark. The Met Office’s three-month outlook indicates a 50 per cent probability of a hotter than average summer, with increased risks of heatwaves and drought. This follows the UK’s record-breaking 2022, when temperatures reached 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. Such extremes are no longer anomalies: they are the new baseline.
Dr. Helena Vance, Science & Climate Correspondent, reports: “We are looking at a planet that is absorbing energy at an accelerating rate. The physics is clear. More greenhouse gases mean more trapped heat. The only variable is how fast we can flatten the curve.”
The forecast is driven by two primary factors: the continued emission of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities, and the expected development of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, a natural climate pattern, adds a layer of warmth on top of the long-term trend. When combined with decades of anthropogenic warming, it can push the system past critical thresholds.
Scientists emphasise that a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris target is lost. The agreement refers to a long-term average over 20 to 30 years. However, it is a sobering sign that we are approaching that boundary far sooner than anticipated. The probability of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has increased from near zero in 2015 to about 50 per cent now.
For Britain, the direct effects will be felt in agriculture, water resources, and public health. The National Farmers’ Union has already reported crop failures due to prolonged dry spells in 2022 and 2023. The UK water supply system, designed for a cooler climate, struggles to cope with consecutive dry winters. And heat-related deaths among vulnerable populations are rising.
The forecast also notes that the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This contributes to changes in the jet stream, which can lead to more persistent weather patterns in the UK such as prolonged wet or dry spells.
The response from policymakers so far remains insufficient. Despite net-zero pledges, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. The UK has made progress in reducing emissions from electricity generation, largely through renewables, but transport and home heating remain stubbornly high in carbon intensity.
Dr. Vance adds: “We have the technology to decarbonise. Solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels. Battery storage is scaling. The inertia is not technical, it is political and economic. We need to treat the transition with the same urgency as a war mobilisation.”
The Met Office stressed that the forecast is not a prediction of doom, but a call to action. Every tenth of a degree avoided reduces the severity of impacts. The difference between 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming, for example, means the difference between coral reefs surviving or collapsing, and between Arctic summers having ice or being ice free.
As Britain braces for another potentially record-breaking year, the science is unequivocal. The window for meaningful action is closing, but it has not yet shut. What happens next depends on choices made today.
